The success of the Covid-19 vaccine will not eliminate the risk of the virus, the UK concludes

Conclusion: Businesses and governments around the world need to prepare to live with Covid-19, accepting that the virus will not go away, but that blockages cannot continue forever once hospitalizations are reduced to manageable levels.

“We cannot escape the lifting of the blockade that will result in more cases, more hospitalizations and, unfortunately, more deaths,” British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told parliament on Monday as he worked out a slow and conditional blockade. . “Therefore, there is no credible path to a zero-Covid Britain or indeed to a zero-Covid world.”

The precaution does not undermine the value of a successful vaccine launch. New data released on Monday showed that Britain’s vaccination program – which has hit at least a third of the country’s 53 million adults – has significantly reduced infections and reduced serious diseases by even more.

But while the program paves the way for a gradual unblocking of the country over the next four months, the government does not treat it like a silver bullet. “Vaccination will reduce rates, but it will not get rid of it,” Chris Whitty, England’s medical director, said on Monday. He added that Covid-19 “will probably be a problem for the coming winters”.

Epidemiologists have long warned that Covid-19 will likely circulate for years, or even decades, leaving society to cope as with other endemic diseases, such as the flu, measles and HIV.

No vaccine is 100% effective and no population will be completely inoculated. So a big unknown in a vaccinated society is what levels of infection governments will be willing to live with before introducing restrictions, said David Salisbury, who previously chaired the World Health Organization’s Strategic Expert Advisory Group on Immunization.

“It’s a political and societal issue about what is acceptable,” he said.

The British government hopes that Covid-19 will be treated as a flu for the long term. In the last five years, between 4,000 and 22,000 people have died each year from the flu in England. In the last year, Covid-19 has killed 130,000 people in the UK

In the US, Covid-19 claimed more than 500,000 lives. The flu is estimated to have killed between 22,000 and 61,000 people in the United States in the past five seasons, depending on the severity of the outbreak.

The entire adult population of England is expected to receive a Covid-19 blow by the end of July. The British government intends to reduce almost all restrictions by 21 June in four stages. But even with good vaccine administration, the virus will still be present. Children will not be immunized, allowing the virus to circulate freely among about a fifth of the population. Not everyone will accept the vaccine.

To make matters worse, the infection rate starts from a very high base in the UK

Modelers warn that it could translate into a jump in cases where restrictions are eased. With an effective vaccine of 85% and three-quarters of British adults inoculated, about half of the population would be left vulnerable to the virus, suggests modeling at Imperial College London, as children will not be vaccinated.

A relaxation of the restrictions during the summer would increase the infections in the autumn. Although restrictions are not completely eased by August, Imperial College estimates it could lead to 56,000 deaths by June next year. The modeling at the University of Warwick, which also informed the British government’s policy, came to similar conclusions.

Marc Baguelin, an epidemiologist at Imperial College, says the model is a basic case and could underestimate both the absorption of the vaccine and its effectiveness in reducing the transmission of the disease. Other reasons for optimism include improved treatments for those hospitalized with severe Covid-19, which lower the risk of death, especially for younger patients.

On the other hand, the virus could move to make vaccines much less effective. Some vaccines have already shown low efficacy against variants identified in South Africa and Brazil, for example. “That makes the prospect of a third wave much bigger,” said Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Assessment at the University of Washington.

The long-term effects of Covid-19 infection on younger people are still understood. If they are harmful, then governments may be more cautious about allowing young people to resume life without vaccination or social distancing.

Part of the problem is reflected in simple math. If 90% of a population gets a vaccine that is 90% effective, it leaves 19% unprotected, said David Sarphie, executive director of Bio Nano Consulting, which worked with Imperial College to develop Covid-19 modeling tools for governments and companies. “Nineteen percent of the UK population is 12.9 million,” he said.

Successive waves of hospitalizations and deaths in Western countries last year show that the disease can cause significant disease even when a relatively small number of people are exposed, said Martin Hibberd, a professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

“Even with vaccines, there are still a considerable number of people who will continue to be vulnerable,” he said.

Disease experts say the prospect of substantial levels of serious illness and death, even in a population with wide vaccine coverage, underscores the need for effective virus testing systems and the isolation of infected people and their contacts. Governments must work hard to improve vaccine coverage and overcome misinformation and hesitation, they say.

In the UK, British government advisers say clothing or homework should be reintroduced in the winter to reduce outbreaks. The government is considering whether the British will have to prove that they are vaccinated or virus-free to resume activities such as going to a pub or office.

Highlighting the potentially rocky path to normalcy, the UK Treasury is likely to expand emergency financial support for the economy when the government budget is presented next week.

In general, the coronavirus “will be something we will live with,” said Roy Anderson, an epidemiologist and professor at Imperial College.

Write to Max Colchester at [email protected] and Jason Douglas at [email protected]

Corrections and amplifications
With an effective vaccine at 85% and three-quarters of British adults inoculated, about half of Britain’s population would be left vulnerable to the virus, modeling suggests. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said that half of the adult population will be left vulnerable. (Corrected on February 23)