The COVID-19 strain first discovered in the UK doubles in the US every 10 days, posing a potential increased risk of cases and deaths in the country, according to a study published Sunday.
A group of researchers estimated that the British version, called B.1.1.7, is spreading at an increased transmission rate of 35 to 45% and is expected to become the predominant strain in the US by March. The study, launched on the medRxiv server, has not yet been evaluated by colleagues or published in a medical journal.
“Our study shows that the US is on a similar trajectory to other countries where B.1.1.7 has quickly become the dominant variant of SARS-CoV-2, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. “, The study shows. .
Scientists have established from half a million tests of COVID-19 and 212 genomes that the prediction of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is that the UK strain would become the most widespread variant of coronavirus in the US by March.
Kristian Andersen, co-author of the study and virologist at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California, told The New York Times that “nothing of this work is surprising, but people must see it.”
Researchers estimate that the British strain, first announced by the British government on December 20, has appeared in the United States since November. The first case was confirmed in the United States in Colorado on December 29 and has since spread to at least 33 states, according to the CDC..
The strain, first found in the UK, has been brought to the United States at least eight times on separate occasions due to increased Thanksgiving and Christmas travel between the two countries, according to the study.
Using their genome sequencing with the results of the laboratory test company’s Helix tests, analysts predicted how quickly the coronavirus variant spread in the US Helix was contracted by the CDC to inspect samples for the UK strain.
Scientists anticipate that the strain accounts for a higher percentage of COVID-19 cases in some states, such as Florida, where an estimated 4.5 percent of cases come from the variant.
Overall, the British version is estimated to account for 2% of all cases in the US, which means that another 1,000 people can contract the strain every day, the Times said.
The CDC has reported 611 B.1.1.7 cases in the US, but the number is expected to be much higher due to the complicated method of confirming a case from a British strain.
In total, the United States had nearly 27 million cases and more than 463,000 deaths caused by COVID-19, with January accounting for the most deaths. and the highest average coronavirus hospitalizations of any pandemic month.