The decision of a group of the International Criminal Court to clarify the path for a possible investigation into war crimes against Israel forces the Biden administration to enter the Israeli-Palestinian conflict much earlier than anticipated.
Why does it matter: The ICC decision angered the Israeli government – and also underscored their dependence on the Biden administration, senior Israeli officials told me. Following the announcement of the decision on Friday, Israel immediately opened urgent consultations with US officials.
- On Monday morning, the US charge d’affaires of Jerusalem met with Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi to discuss the issue.
- A few hours later, Secretary of State Tony Blinken spoke with Ashkenazi and assured him that the United States would help Israel oppose the ICC decision, Israeli officials tell me.
The whole picture: Unlike the Obama and Trump administrations, the Biden administration does not see the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a foreign policy priority and has little expectation of progress.
- On Monday, on CNN, Blinken summarized President Biden’s initial approach to the issue so as not to “do harm” – to ensure that neither side takes unilateral action that would further obstruct the path to peace.
- Biden does not believe that there is a realistic chance of renewing negotiations between the parties soon and therefore does not intend to appoint a special envoy for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
But just three weeks after Biden’s term, Israeli officials warn of a deep crisis in Israeli-Palestinian relations if the ICC prosecutor begins the investigation into war crimes, which was originally requested by the Palestinian government.
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now desperately needs Biden’s support on an issue of acute importance to Israel.
- The State Department has already challenged the ICC’s decision that it has jurisdiction to investigate the matter.
- The Israeli government now hopes that the Biden administration will put pressure on the Member States of the court and the prosecutor not to pursue the investigation.
What to look for: This confidence could give the US leverage when it tries to discourage the Israeli government from taking provocative measures, such as the subsequent construction of settlements, or it could obtain Israeli approval for the reopening of the US consulate in Jerusalem.
- But the ICC ruling could also complicate the Biden administration’s efforts to renew ties with the Palestinians – especially the plan to reopen the PLO’s Washington office, which the Trump administration closed in 2018.
- An existing US law requires the secretary of state to certify to Congress that the Palestinian Authority is not pursuing actions against Israel in the ICC so that the PLO can have an office in Washington.
Game status: Palestinian leaders welcomed the ICC’s decision and called for an investigation as soon as possible. It is unclear whether the Biden administration has held talks with Palestinian officials on the issue.