It will be a long time, seven years before the COVID-19 pandemic ends worldwide, if the distribution of the vaccine continues at the current rate, according to a calculation from Bloomberg.
The media, which said it had built the “largest database” of COVID-19 vaccines in the world, dropped the number and found it could take nearly a decade to reach its immunity if distribution does not increase. two doses. vaccines.
Dr. Anthony Fauci said that 70-85 percent of the population will need the vaccine to achieve the immunity of the herd, and while the US is on track to reach that goal by the New Year in 2022, it could take countries like Canada ten years at their current pace.
More than 119 million doses have been distributed worldwide, but Bloomberg’s tracking tool shows that some countries, mostly rich, western, reach 75% coverage much faster than others.
For example, Israel is about to see 75% coverage by spring, but it could take Portugal four years, China seven years and Latvia almost nine years to achieve herd immunity if vaccine distribution does not change.
The calculations are, of course, “volatile,” Bloomberg explained, especially with the launch being only a few months old and still affected by supply disruptions.
Canada’s vaccination rate has been halved recently after the country faced transportation delays, but as long as their contracts to buy more doses per person than any other country advances, they will not be stuck in pandemic hell for long. for a decade.
The press said it expects the pace to accelerate globally as more jabber will be available – indicated major vaccine manufacturing centers in India and Mexico and said production is just beginning, and only a third of countries have started vaccination campaigns.
The Bloomberg computer is based on two doses for complete vaccination and will be changed once the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which requires a single dose, is available. Although vaccinations have not been approved for children, Bloomberg has included children in their calculations, as they can also become infected and transmit the virus.
The computer does not take into account any level of natural immunity experienced by those who previously had the virus – CDC said that a certain immunity is offered after an infection, but I do not know how long it lasts.
A study by Mount Sinai published last week on the MedRxiv prepress server found that reinfection is “common” among young people, especially those who have had very mild cases or no symptoms at all when they have had the error. The researchers involved called on governments to include young, previously infected people in the distribution of vaccines.
Another study published this week suggested that those who had the virus might only need one dose of vaccine.