The rise of several contagious variants of coronavirus threatens an encouraging trend of declining COVID-19 cases across the country.
New cases of COVID-19 in the US fell below 100,000 on Sunday for the first time since November, a hopeful sign after a brutal post-Thanksgiving period that has seen cases, hospitalizations and deaths increase.
Health officials urge the public and governors not to ease precautionary measures, despite the somewhat improved situation, as measures such as wearing a mask and distancing oneself from others are even more important when the virus is more contagious.
In addition, while the trend is heading in a positive direction, the levels of cases, hospitalizations and deaths are still much higher than any of the previous peaks last spring and summer.
On Sunday, there were 96,000 new cases, according to the COVID follow-up project, down from a peak of nearly 300,000 in early January. But this is still far above any level that experts would consider a goal. It is even higher than the peak of summer cases, for example, which was about 75,000 cases a day.
About 3,000 people die every day from the virus, and about 80,000 are hospitalized with COVID-19.
However, the positive trend has led some governors to start easing restrictions.
In Iowa, Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) lifted the mask and distance restrictions on restaurants and bars last week.
Although this is probably the most drastic recent move, other states have taken more gradual steps to relax. Governor Andrew Cuomo
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Asked about the decision of Iowa, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Rochelle WalenskyRochelle Walensky CDC could set school reopening requirements this week, Biden says Maine governor warns against Super Bowl parties Republicans seek to hit Democrats over reopening school MORE On Monday, he urged states not to lift precautions, citing in part the growth of new variants of the virus.
“We still have this emerging threat of variation and I would simply discourage any of these activities,” she said. “We really need to keep all mitigation measures in play if we are to really gain control over this pandemic.”
Highlighting the threat of a more contagious variant of the virus first identified in the UK, a study released on Sunday found that the variant doubles every 10 days in the US and is likely to become the dominant strain in many states by March.
As the variant is 35-45% more transmissible, experts warn that its increase could lead to a sharp increase in cases and hospitalizations.
“We certainly expect to see an increase in the number of cases,” said Karthik Gangavarapu, a researcher at the Scripps Research Institute and one of the study’s authors. “We still don’t know how long there will be a peak.”
Improving genomic sequencing to track the prevalence of different variants, as well as additional efforts to track contacts from local public health departments aimed at slowing the spread of the British variant, could both help in the fight, Gangavarapu said.
Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, issued a warning pointing to the example of Ireland, which has been hit hard by the new variant. At the beginning of January, it reached 132 new cases per 100,000 people. “The United States has never seen such numbers. Only Dakota had such high infection rates, “Jha wrote on Twitter.
Jha added that he was “optimistic about the end of spring and summer”, given that vaccines would be more widely available by then, but said the coming weeks were more worrying.
Although there are not enough vaccines available to immunize everyone in the next few months and there are logistical challenges in getting gunfire in millions of arms, the faster the vaccination campaign, the more blunt any peak will be. from the new variant.
Encouragingly, vaccines seem to work well against the UK variant.
But another variant, first identified in South Africa, is more worrying based on initial data. The results so far have suggested a decrease in the way South African vaccines work. This variant has also been found in the USA, but it is less widespread so far.
Tom Frieden, former director of the CDC, wrote that recent improvement trends are likely due to a continued recovery from the post-holiday peak, when an increase in travel and indoor gatherings has led to increases.
“Now is not the time to let our guard down,” he wrote on Twitter. “We’re making progress on vaccines, but the options are coming.”