The new Covid variant first found in the UK could become a dominant strain in the US by March, says CDC

A more contagious strain of coronavirus first found in the UK late last year could become the dominant strain in the United States by March as the nation fights to vaccinate people against the disease, according to a new study by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“The modeled trajectory of this variant in the US exhibits rapid growth in early 2021, becoming the predominant option in March, “according to the CDC study released Friday.

Researchers have warned that the increased prevalence could further increase the nation’s hospitals and require greater public health measures to reduce the transmission of the virus until enough people are vaccinated. Improved surveillance of mutant viruses combined with greater compliance with public health measures, such as wearing a mask, washing hands and physical distance, could help slow the spread of the virus, they said.

“These measures will be more effective if they are put in place sooner rather than later to slow down the initial spread of variant B.1.1.7. Efforts to prepare the health system for further increases in cases are justified, “said the researchers.

So far, the country has found only 76 cases of Covid-19 with the highly infectious variant, known as B.1.1.7, according to CDC data last Wednesday. However, many of the cases that were identified were in people without a travel history, suggesting that the variant is spreading in the undetected community.

Global health experts have argued that while the new variant found in the UK and a similar strain found in South Africa are more infectious, they do not appear to make people sick or increase anyone’s chances of dying.

However, more cases could eventually lead to additional hospitalizations at a time when the nation is already facing record levels of Covid-19 patients. The rapid transmission of new variants may require more people to be vaccinated to obtain the so-called immunity of the herd, the researchers said.

Immunity from the herd is when enough people are immune to a disease, either through vaccination or natural infection, which makes it unlikely to spread and protect the rest of the community, says the Mayo Clinic.

The United States has slowly begun its vaccination efforts, missing its goal of inoculating 20 million people by the end of last year. The United States has so far administered more than 31.1 million doses, but only 12.3 million of them, according to CDC data.

There is also concern that new variants, especially the strain found in South Africa, could be more resistant to monoclonal antibody treatments, which have been shown to reduce one’s chances of landing in hospital if given. early enough in their infection.

CDC study

The agency’s research said that although the current prevalence of the variant in the US is still unknown, it is believed to be less than 0.5% of cases based on the analysis. The United States has not yet detected the variant found in South Africa or another strain identified in Japan among travelers from Brazil, the researchers said.

In their model, the researchers estimated that the variant was 50% more transmissible than the current strains. They also estimated that between 10% and 30% of people already have immunity to pre-existing infections and 1 million doses of vaccine will be given a day starting this month.

Even if the prevalence of strain B.1.1.7 is believed to be low, given the high transmissibility, it is likely to increase rapidly in early 2021, the model showed. Even with vaccines, the variant will continue to spread, although drugs have shown the greatest effect in reducing the transmission of the strain to places where the disease was already in decline.

“Early efforts that may limit the spread of variant B.1.1.7, such as universal and increased compliance with public health mitigation strategies, will allow more time for continuous vaccination to achieve higher immunity at the population level,” he said. said the study.