MOSCOW (AP) – They are not leaders for life – at least technically. But in political reality, the strong mandates of China’s Xi Jinping and, as of this week, Russia’s Vladimir Putin are looking as if they will expand much deeper into the 21st century – even as the two superpowers whose destinies lead them come together. more than a year goes by.
Moreover, as he strengthens political control at home, sometimes harshly, he works together more substantially than ever in a growing challenge for the West and the world’s other superpower, the United States, which elects its leader every four years.
This week, Putin signed a law that would allow him to retain power until 2036. The 68-year-old Russian president, who has been in power for more than two decades – more than any other Kremlin leader since the dictator Soviet Josef Stalin – pushed through a constitutional vote last year, allowing him to run again in 2024, when his current six-year term ends. He oversaw a systematic crackdown on dissent.
In China, Xi, who came to power in 2012, imposed even stricter controls on the already repressive political scene, emerging as one of his nation’s strongest leaders in the seven decades of Communist Party rule that began with the regime. often brutal of Mao Zedong. . Under Xi, the government rallied, imprisoned or silenced intellectuals, legal activists and other voices, repressed opposition in Hong Kong and used security forces to suppress demands for the rights of minorities in Xinjiang, Tibet and Inner Mongolia.
Xi ruled out rivals, blocked criticism and strengthened party control over intelligence. A continuing crackdown on corruption has won popular support while maintaining potential competitors.
Its steady consolidation of power has led to the removal of the Chinese presidency’s terms of office in 2018, demolishing a convention the party has set to prevent a repeat of the abuse of Mao’s unique rule. Xi telegraphed his intention to stay in power by breaking with tradition and without indicating a preferred successor. One who seemed eager to take on the role, Sun Zhengcai, was shot down in 2017 and sentenced to life in prison on corruption charges.
In Russia, too, Putin’s most outspoken critic, Alexei Navalny, was arrested in January on his return from Germany, where he spent five months recovering from a nervous breakdown he blames on the Kremlin. the Russian authorities denied it. In February, Navalny was sentenced to two and a half years in prison.
In defying the West, Putin and Xi touched on nationalist sentiments. Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea has pushed Putin’s approval ratings to almost 90 percent before they slowed amid economic hardship and unpopular pension reform.
But the impact of Putin and Xi’s retention of power is hard to bear on the borders of those nations. It is moving outwards into the geopolitical balance of power in countless ways.
As Moscow’s relations with the West deepened until the post-Cold War war, amid allegations of electoral meddling and piracy attacks, Putin increasingly sought to strengthen ties with China. And while China has so far avoided a confrontation with the West as well as Russia, it faces growing pressure from Washington and its allies on the Beijing human rights record in Xinjiang, Hong Kong and the China Sea. South.
US President Joe Biden has taken an increasingly hard line with both leaders, recently describing Putin as a “killer” and focusing on his national security aides who are excoriating China for a series of problems. Such approaches suggest that Moscow and Beijing will have incentives to build an even stronger alliance.
Like their nations, the two leaders also fostered a closer relationship.
Putin and Xi have developed strong personal ties to strengthen a “strategic partnership” between the two former communist rivals as they fight the West for influence. And even though Moscow and Beijing have in the past rejected the possibility of a military alliance, Putin said last fall that such a prospect could not be ruled out altogether.
While both Putin and Xi appear firmly entrenched, many challenges remain. For example, the pandemic was a major challenge for both leaders and they took a similar approach with caution when it struck.
Putin responded last spring by introducing a full six-week blockade that severely affected Russia’s already weak economy. Its approval rating has dropped to an all-time low of 59%. Later, the government eased the restrictions and moved away from the new blockades, helping to reduce economic damage and strengthen Putin’s ratings.
Xi was left out of the public eye for the first few weeks uncertainly, fearing that any wrong move could give rivals a chance to overthrow him. In the end, China controlled the pandemic better than many other places, enhancing Xi’s position as a leader.
Xi also needs to figure out how to satisfy ambitious young politicians who may see their careers hampered by his long tenure. And he must prove that his extended rule will not lead to the excesses of the Mao years, especially the disastrous and deeply traumatic Cultural Revolution of 1966-76.
“Xi has to deal with a key paradox. He worships Mao and builds the same cult of party personality and centrality, ”said Daniel Blumenthal, director of Asian studies at the American Enterprise Institute. “But he knows that his people fear and hate Maoism, so he must pretend not to be Mao. For now, he is a strong undisputed leader, dealing with cracks and fissures in the party and society through Maoist-style campaigns and purges. ”
Putin faces even more daunting challenges. Russia’s economy is a fraction of China’s, and its overwhelming dependence on exports of oil and gas and other raw materials makes it vulnerable to market fluctuations. Western economic and financial sanctions have reduced Moscow’s access to Western technologies and capital markets, slowing the economy and hampering modernization efforts. The stagnant standard of living and declining incomes fueled growing discontent.
Russia’s growing ties with China are part of its strategy to offset Western sanctions. Chinese companies have provided replacements for missing Western technologies, helped major infrastructure projects such as Crimea’s energy supply, and channeled cash flows to ease the burden of sanctions on Kremlin-connected tycoons.
“Beijing has helped Moscow, at least to some extent, withstand US and EU pressure,” Alexander Gabuev, China’s top expert at the Carnegie Moscow Center, wrote in a recent analysis. “This assistance has also allowed Moscow to become more assertive in other parts of the world, from its presence in the Middle East and Africa to supporting the Venezuelan regime and intervening in the US elections.”
Military cooperation remains an important frontier. As US pressure increased, Russia moved to expand military ties with China. Their armed forces staged a series of joint exercises, and Putin noted that Russia had provided China with state-of-the-art military technology.
But a complete alliance – putting the common military power of Xi and Putin’s hands on their nations? Something like this seems less abstract when you consider the increasingly close relationship between the two long-term leaders.
“We don’t need him,” Putin said in October. “But theoretically, it’s very possible to imagine.”
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Ken Moritsugu, Greater China News Director for The Associated Press, reported from Beijing.