JERUSALEM (PA) – Israelis vote in the fourth parliamentary election in just two years on Tuesday. Once again, the race comes down to a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Netanyahu, who has been prime minister for 12 years, hopes voters will reward him for leading the success of the country’s coronavirus vaccine. and his diplomatic access to the Arab world. His provocateurs highlighted his previous mistakes in the coronavirus strategy, his dependence on religious allies and divisive ultra-nationals, and his ongoing corruption process..
Over the years, Netanyahu has developed a reputation as a political magician and master manipulator capable of surviving any crisis. With witnesses set to take action against him next month, Netanyahu is hoping for another miracle that could provide a friendlier parliament willing to grant him immunity or freeze his trial. Opponents describe him as a serial liar who caused two years of political paralysis, putting his political survival and legal issues before the country’s interests.
Opinion polls predict an extremely tight race, increasing the possibility of a continuous stalemate and even an unprecedented fifth consecutive election. Netanyahu seems to have a slight advantage because of the complexity of Israel’s political system.
In Israel, people vote for parties, not for individual candidates. Netanyahu’s Likud is once again poised to emerge as the largest individual party. But as no party has ever won a 61-seat parliamentary majority on its own, political alliances must be formed to create a governing coalition. If opinion polls turn out to be accurate, Netanyahu would have a clearer way to build a government than the range of rivals who have little in common beyond their animosity toward it.
Here’s a look at the key factors that could determine whether Netanyahu or any of its challengers can reach that elusive 61-seat majority.
VACCI-NATION: Netanyahu has expressed hopes of re-election to the success of Israel’s successful vaccination campaign. Netanyahu moved quickly and aggressively in December last year, lobbying Pfizer and Moderna CEOs to provide enough vaccines for Israel’s 9.3 million people. In less than three months, Israel has vaccinated about 80% of its adult population. With declining infection rates, this has allowed the country to reopen schools, restaurants, museums and the main airport in time for election day.
Opponents have accused Netanyahu of managing the pandemic over the past year. A series of blockages have hit the economy hard, thousands of companies have failed, and unemployment remains in double digits. Many also have bitter memories of Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox allies who violated the blocking rules. and indicates more than 6,000 deaths in the country COVID-19.
Once the economy comes back to life, Netanyahu hopes that a growing sense of normalcy will make voters forget last year’s difficulties. This may explain why, although polls show that most Israelis want to replace Netanyahu, he is also considered the most suitable to be prime minister.
“In people’s minds, first and foremost, when you run in elections, is the identity of the prime minister,” said Yohanan Plesner, president of Israel’s Institute for Democracy. “In many ways, this works in Netanyahu’s favor, because it’s not clear who the opponent is.”
I HAVE TO STAY OR I HAVE TO GO: Opinion polls have shown that about 15% of voters remain undecided. Tuesday’s election will depend not only on who these voters support, but also whether they choose to vote.
Analysts expect turnout to be lower than 71% of the most recent election a year ago, in part because of continuing concerns about the coronavirus, along with general voter fatigue. Israel offers special accommodation, including separate booths and mobile polling stations, to allow sick or quarantined people to vote.
But more important than the general presence will be voter turnout in key sectors. Netanyahu’s religious and nationalist allies tend to have highly motivated voters. On the other hand, Arab voters, disappointed by the disintegration of the umbrella party “Common List”, are expected to stay home in greater numbers this time. Voters in the more liberal and secular areas around Tel Aviv also tend to have lower turnout rates. Netanyahu could benefit if these trends materialize.
ON THE MARGINS: These choices could depend on showing a few small parties. To enter the Knesset or parliament, a party must receive at least 3.25% of the vote, giving them a minimum of four seats in the 120-seat body.
Researcher Camil Fuchs said four small parties were floating near the threshold. Of these, the eager Meretz party and the Blue and White centrist are “much more at risk” of not getting enough support, according to recent polls, he said. Both are members of the anti-Netanyahu bloc.
The religious Zionist party, a small pro-Netanyahu faction that includes openly racist and homophobic candidates, appears to be gaining strength. If one of the anti-Netanyahu parties fails to enter, a strong presentation by religious Zionists could help Netanyahu overcome it.
KINGMAKERS: Despite the tight race, neither Netanyahu and his tough religious allies nor the anti-Netanyahu bloc, led by centrist Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party, are expected to occupy most of the seats alone.
This sets the stage for Netanyahu’s former aide, Naftali Bennett, to emerge as the decisive voice in building the coalition. Bennett’s Yemina party supports the same harsh ideology as Likud. But the two men have a notoriously strained relationship, and Bennett refused to engage on either side.
Given their similar views of the world, Bennett, who served as Netanyahu’s minister of education and defense, seems more suited to join Netanyahu than the anti-Netanyahu bloc, which ranges from corrupt Arab parties to former ones. Netanyahu’s allies who had bitter personal partings with him. However, if given the chance to be prime minister, Bennett could be on Netanyahu’s side.
Some polls have predicted that both sides will not reach a coalition, even with Bennett’s support. This could create the unlikely scenario of a small Islamic party led by Arab MP Mansour Abbas as king – or simply forcing a fifth election.
ANSWER IN ACTION: In the last three elections, Netanyahu has boasted of his close alliance with then-President Donald Trump, posting massive billboards on highways and in heights that showed men together. With Joe Biden now in the White House, Netanyahu barely mentioned the new president, whose administration gave him a cold welcome.
Likewise, almost no mention was made of the Palestinians, reflecting the freezing of years of substantial peace efforts. But Biden said he would resume talks with the Palestinians soon. This could make it difficult for the next Israeli leader to ignore the issue – or Biden.