Even in its lame duck period, the Trump administration has not finished promoting diplomatic agreements in the Middle East. In December, Morocco resumed normalizing relations with Israel, and now Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain will end their three-and-a-half-year blockade of Qatar. If the Biden Administration is wise, it will capitalize on the greater unity of the Allies in the Middle East as a bastion against Iran’s regional evils.
Qatar, an oil-rich nation in the Persian Gulf that hosts an American air base, has been in conflict for years with neighboring monarchies. In June 2017, four Arab countries announced a boycott, halting air travel and disrupting trade. Qatar has hardly been an innocent victim in the dispute, after supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and Islamist causes in Libya and elsewhere. As I wrote at the time, the calculation might have been necessary to send a warning to Doha.
But in a new agreement signed in Saudi Arabia and negotiated by Kuwait, as well as Middle Eastern Trump Tsar Jared Kushner, the blockade of Qatar is coming to an end. Flights will resume between neighboring Arab states, and countries have expressed goodwill. Trade and investment can also resume.
The agreement appears to be intended to remedy deeper ideological cracks between Qatar and conservative Gulf monarchies, rather than cure them. Doha has agreed to drop lawsuits against countries, but has not made public commitments to reduce its disruptive behavior. However, the risk of a continued division in the Gulf was for Qatar to move closer to Turkey and especially to Iran, with which it has a maritime border.
Some in the Biden administration may be keen to punish Saudi Arabia, given the human rights situation, but the move shows Riyadh is making concessions to improve stability in its neighborhood. The Biden team has signaled its desire to join the Iranian nuclear deal, but Tuesday’s agreement shows that Arab monarchies are partly closer to balancing Iran.