The Green Bay Packers will enter the 2021 NFL Draft with 10 picks: an original pick in each round plus compensatory picks in the fourth, fifth and sixth rounds.
During his first three projects, Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst was active in moving up and down to target certain players or build capital. With 10 elections in 2021, he will likely be active for a fourth straight draft.
The Jimmy Johnson commercial value chart can be used (and is used) by teams to determine the value of a project choice. There are other ways to measure value, but here is the individual commercial value of the 10 packer selections using the Johnson model:
- First round, number 29 overall: 640 points
- Second round, number 62 overall: 284 points
- The third round, no. 92 overall: 132 points
- Fourth round, no. 135 overall: 38.5 points
- Fourth round, no. 142 overall: 35 points
- Fifth round, no. 173 overall: 20.6 points
- Fifth round, no. 178 overall: 18.6 points
- Sixth round. Nr. 214 overall: 4.2 points
- Sixth round, number 220 overall: 1.7 points
- Seventh round, no. 256 in general: 1 point
- Total value (10 choices): 1,175.6 points (1,115.2 points in 2020)
Here is the complete project of the order, with the corresponding commercial values:
According to the Tankathon, the Packers are entering the 2521st NFL draft in the capital project.
Here is an example of a transaction that uses the Johnson model. Suppose the Packers want to trade with the Indianapolis Colts in 21st place overall. The difference between the general elections no. 21 and no. 29 is 160 points. At the very least, the Packers should probably offer the choice in round three (132 points) for the Colts to consider the offer.
Here is the Rich Hill model of commercial value:
- First round, number 29 overall: 203 points
- Second round, number 62 overall: 84 points
- The third round, no. 92 overall: 43 points
- Fourth round, no. 135 overall: 18 points
- Fourth round, no. 142 overall: 15 points
- Fifth round, no. 173 overall: 8 points
- Fifth round, no. 178 overall: 7 points
- Sixth round. Nr. 214 in general: 3 points
- Sixth round, number 220 overall: 3 points
- Seventh round, no. 256 in general: 1 point
- Total value (10 choices): 385 points (357 points in 2020)