The German Greens, including the party’s candidate for chancellor, Annalena Baerbock (C), who is celebrating in 2019 in Berlin after the European Parliament elections.
TOBIAS SCHWARZ | AFP | Getty Images
In a few years, the Green Party of Germany has gone from being somewhat on the fringes of the political institution to gaining popularity and prominence.
He is now in a position where he could begin to overtake Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian alliance, the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU).
If he extends and holds this position, the party could be responsible for Germany’s political, economic and, of course, environmental direction after the September 26 elections.
Recent polls put the party in second place ahead of the CDU-CSU. But a poll by the Forsa Institute, conducted on Tuesday, with 1,502 people, put the Greens in the lead with 28% of the vote – by 5 percentage points compared to a similar poll conducted on April 6-12. The same poll showed that support for CDU-CSU fell by 6 points to 21%.
Survey aggregator Europe Elects said on Twitter that if such a result were repeated in the election, it would be the first time since 2005 for Merkel’s conservative alliance not to come first.
While the Greens certainly seem to see an increase in popularity, a separate INSA poll for the Bild newspaper on Tuesday should be mentioned, which placed the CDU-CSU at 27% of the vote, and the Greens at 22% of the vote, reflecting similar results in other April polls.
In the last elections in 2017, the Greens obtained only 8.9% of the vote, while Merkel’s CDU-CSU obtained 33%.
‘Everything is possible’
The Forsa poll will give the Green Party a massive boost, adding a solid boost in recent months and the selection earlier this week of 40-year-old Annalena Baerbock, co-leader of the party, as the Greens’ candidate for chancellor. Party officials are increasingly confident in their chances in the election.
“Everything is possible,” Konstantin von Notz, a member of the Bundestag and the Green Party, told CNBC on Tuesday, echoing one of the party’s slogans.
“There should be no doubt, it will be a very tough election campaign. It will be a big controversy and people from all parties will be very tough for us, because the Greens say we could be the main party and that wakes up. every enemy “.
Greens attract voters dissatisfied with the old guard of German political parties. Recent scandals and political struggles within the CDU-CSU – most recently, about who will be the alliance’s candidate for chancellor in the September 26 vote – have also benefited the Greens, who appear united, focused and appealing to a liberal, class middle and environmentally conscious electorate.
Von Notz said that the party has seen more voters in recent years and that many Germans are “tired” of the old political institution.
“Five months after the election is a long road, with many conflicts, no doubt, but I strongly believe that we have a very good narrative and strong political ideas about the future of Germany, the future of Europe and the connection of those issues related to the economic crisis and related issues. of the climate change facing the whole world, “he said.
As expected, the Greens’ political commitment is to protect the environment. But the party also wants to restructure the country’s economic model into a social-ecological system, which means more emphasis on green technologies, coal-fired energy by 2030 and a ban on cars with combustion engines on the roads. German by 2030.
In order to finance its program, the party called for the relaxation of the so-called debt brake that would allow Germany to raise more money in public markets and also demanded higher taxes for the rich. The money raised from such a wealth tax could partially fund an investment program of 50 billion euros ($ 60 billion) a year, for a decade, which the party proposes to move to an economy without carbon.
Strategists believe that a coalition between CDU-CSU and the Greens is a baseline scenario and one that is being prepared by the Conservative bloc, according to Christian Schulz, director of European economics at Citi Research, who explained in what direction such a coalition could go. .
“We would expect ambitious climate protection policies, backed by large public investment. We doubt that the CDU / CSU would sanction tax increases, so that additional lending will require changes to the constitutional brake on debt. This would be possible, given given that the opposition SPD and the Left Party would not oppose this and would provide the necessary two-thirds majority, “Schulz said.
German business groups are less convinced of green policies, but the BDI commented in March that the Green Party’s draft electoral program provided “little light and a lot of shadow.”
In a statement, BDI CEO Joachim Lang warned that “higher taxes and more bureaucracy would cost the economy and society dearly”, although he said the party’s demands for a decade of future investment “are welcome”.
“Higher taxes reduce investment power and hinder future spending on climate protection. Demand for higher CO2 prices without adequate alternatives weakens Germany’s competitiveness,” he said.
“A wealth tax greatly reduces investment opportunities. Not only companies suffer from this, but all citizens. From an industry point of view, it calls for a decade of future investment to overcome the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic and strengthen Germany’s business location. positive. “
– Annette Weisbach from CNBC helped report this story.