A series of back and forth revenge moves and antagonistic statements between Washington and Tehran put the Biden administration’s plans for a return to the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal in greater danger every day.
“You can’t act with impunity. Be careful,” President Joe Biden told reporters on Friday, describing his message to Iran after ordering airstrikes on buildings in eastern Syria that the Pentagon says are being used by Iran-backed militias.
The strikes were in retaliation for a February 15 attack that saw missiles hit by Iraq’s Erbil International Airport, which houses the coalition’s military forces. The attack, which Western and Iraqi officials attribute to Iranian-backed military forces, killed a US-led coalition contractor and injured others, including a member of the US service. Iran rejects allegations of involvement.
None of this predicts what the Biden administration considers a foreign policy priority: a return to the Iranian nuclear deal, also known as the JCPOA, which was written under the Obama administration with several world powers and lifted economic sanctions on Iran. instead it slows down its nuclear program.
The deal has nearly collapsed since the Trump administration unilaterally abandoned it in 2018 and again imposed heavy sanctions on Iran, which have paralyzed its economy.
Whether or when the agreement can be revived is a critical question for the Biden team’s foreign policy and legacy in the Middle East. Former US diplomat Joseph Westphal, who served as ambassador to Saudi Arabia during Obama’s second term, does not see it happening in the short or even medium term.
“I don’t think we’ll see a deal this year,” Westphal told Dan Murphy of CNBC on Monday. “I think we might see the beginning of negotiations to reach an agreement. The end of the year is coming fast. And I think these things are taking a long time.”
An invitation and a rejection
In early February, the Biden team took a major step in offering to start informal negotiations with Tehran, signaling the first US diplomatic briefing in more than four years. Iran’s leadership over the weekend declined the invitation.
Trying a kind of rapprochement is difficult for Biden. He faces substantial domestic opposition to the agreement with Iran and does not want to appear “gentle” with the country’s regime, especially at a time when Iran is stepping up its uranium enrichment and storage, violating the agreement, actions that bring it closer to the bomb-making capacity.
Tehran insists that this is a response to US sanctions and that its actions can be overturned if sanctions are lifted first; Meanwhile, Biden says he will lift economic sanctions only if Tehran returns its violations. So the two are at a standstill.
Last week, Tehran restricted the UN nuclear watchdog’s access to its nuclear activities, putting the agreement in additional jeopardy, although inspectors still retain access. And on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Iran of being behind an attack on one of its oil tankers off the coast of Oman on Friday. Iran denies any involvement.
Try to level the playing field
However, not everyone believes that a return to the JCPOA cannot happen this year. Ayham Kamel, head of practice in the Middle East, a political risk consultancy within the Eurasia group, believes that the current escalations are an attempt to level the playing field.
“There is no easy way for JCPOA plus. I think everything is happening now in the region – part of the escalation in Iraq, part of the escalation in Iran, even the Iranians rejecting the first offer for direct negotiations with the US – I think that’s all negotiation before negotiation, “Kamel said.
“It’s an effort to really balance the field, with the Iranians trying to get the most out of this process. The JCPOA will happen, the re-entry will happen at some point this year, in my opinion, but it will be difficult.”
Kamel added that the Iranian leadership itself remains divided over the return to the agreement, as it weighs the need for economic relief from sanctions and its opposition to US demands.
“The supreme leader wants an agreement, but many in the IRGC (Revolutionary Guard Corps) do not necessarily want to start weak negotiations,” he said, referring to Iran’s strong parallel and ideological military force. “They want the negotiations to start from a strong position, and regional escalation is part of that.”
Others believe that a return to the agreement is inevitable only because Iran’s economy has been so devastated by sanctions. Its currency is in free fall, its exports have been reduced, and Iranians are struggling to afford food and medicine.
“I think, in the end, a deal is possible,” Richard Goldberg of the Democracy Foundation told CNBC earlier this month, “because the Iranians need money.”