- The first study of the rapidly spreading coronavirus mutation in the UK now warns that stricter safety measures may be needed to prevent another massive outbreak.
- Computer models have indicated that the virus could be 56% more infectious than other strains. However, the new mutation does not cause more severe diseases.
- Researchers warn that schools should be closed to buy more time in the UK. They also say that vaccination campaigns need to be accelerated to reduce the spread of the virus.
When the British Prime Minister announced last weekend that the recently discovered coronavirus mutation could be 70% more infectious than other strains, some experts questioned the estimate, saying more data was needed to determine the potential danger of the strain. Many European countries have imposed travel bans in the UK to reduce the risk of strain B.1.1.7 traveling to the rest of the EU region. The mutation carries a collection of 17 genetic modifications, a bonus for notable mutations in the coronavirus. Although it may not cause more severe cases of COVID-19, these mutations can make it more infectious. Some health experts have even warned that the changes could make existing vaccines less effective, although many others have said there are no such concerns. The consensus was that more research was needed to determine the way forward. The new strain should be tested in laboratories to determine how infectious it really is and whether it can evade neutralizing antibodies generated after vaccines.
The first study of the new coronavirus strain is now here and tells the world that the threat could be serious. Stricter measures may be needed, including the closure of schools and universities, as well as accelerated vaccination campaigns to prevent the epidemic from declining B.1.1.7.
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The study comes from the Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and was published online in prepress form. Scientists have found that the mutation in the UK is 56% more contagious than other versions circulating in the country and will require additional measures to contain them. The 56% estimate is still harsh as researchers gather more data. The study found no evidence that the virus is more lethal than other strains, which is at least good news.
“It may be necessary to greatly accelerate the launch of the vaccine,” said Nicholas Davies, lead author of the study. New York Times. Preliminary findings are quite convincing that faster vaccination will be a really important thing for any country that needs to deal with this or similar options.
The scientists did not study the behavior of the virus in laboratory tests, but used computer models to predict the severity of the pathogen. Their tests ruled out the possibility that strain B.1.1.7 would become prevalent in some regions of the UK, as people in those places move more than others and are likely to come into contact with more people. The scientists also modeled what might happen in the next six months and built models using different levels of restriction. “Cases, hospitalizations, ICU hospitalizations and deaths in 2021 may exceed those of 2020”, without a substantial vaccination campaign. The UK has recorded almost 2.2 million cases so far this year, including almost 70,000 deaths.
Researchers said closing schools by February could buy the country some time. Lifting restrictions would lead to a major increase in cases.
A vaccination model in which 200,000 people are vaccinated each week showed that the rate would be too slow to impact the spread of the mutant virus. “This pace might not even support the relaxation of many control measures,” Davies said. If weekly vaccinations reach 2 million, COVID-19 transmission could decrease. But the supply of vaccines is still low and it will take some time for immunization campaigns to increase. Even after sufficient layoffs, it is unclear whether the country can increase vaccinations to 2 million a week.
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Like any other COVID-19 study, this study could benefit from additional data and may have limitations that affected the models. Some experts who analyzed the study for time highlighted some potential issues, including the assumption that people under the age of 20 have a 50% chance of spreading the disease. But even those researchers have made it clear that the mutation must be taken seriously or could lead to another severe outbreak.
The full study is available at this link.
Chris Smith began writing about gadgets as a hobby, and before he knew it, he was sharing his views on technical stuff with readers around the world. Whenever he doesn’t write about gadgets, he can’t stay away from them, even though he tries desperately. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing.