The Dutch vote against the strict blockade of the coronavirus

Dutch voters went to the polls in the general election on Monday it is largely seen as a referendum on the government’s management of the coronavirus pandemic.

Acting Prime Minister Mark Rutte and his Center-Right Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) are expected to win a fourth term, although his party has been shaken by scandal and allegations that it has mismanaged the pandemic.

Three days of voting began on Monday morning and will end on Wednesday evening, with votes spread due to the ongoing public health crisis.

Opinion polls show that VVD is ahead of the group in terms of voter popularity, although it is pursued by the right-wing, nationalist opposition, the Freedom Party, led by controversial figure Geert Wilders.

Four polls published in the last week predicted that Rutte’s VVD party could occupy between 30 and 40 seats in parliament, compared to polls showing that the Wilders’ Freedom Party could win 19-24 seats. The Christian Democratic Appeal Party is seen winning the third largest number of seats, expected to win 15-19 seats.

According to polls, the VVD is unlikely to get enough seats to rule alone in the 150-seat parliament, the House of Representatives, making another coalition government a likely outcome.

It may not be that simple; In 2017, VVD took 225 days for VVD to form a coalition government with three other parties (the Christian Democratic Appeal, Democrats 66 and the Christian Union) – the longest time needed to form a coalition in Dutch history.

Rutte’s VVD went through several turbulent months, apart from the pandemic. A recent scandal over child allowance payments, in which thousands of families have been wrongly accused of childcare fraud, led to the entire government’s mass resignation in January.

Rutte has remained since then and remains a popular politician, despite unpopular restrictions implemented during the pandemic. He is expected to lead a fourth cabinet, although the composition of an expected coalition remains uncertain.

European Capital Economics economist Melanie Debono warned in a note last week that forming a coalition government could take even longer than the last 225-day record, although she said it was unlikely to have an impact on the economy.

“In the Dutch multiparty system, VVD will not be able to govern alone, but a greater fragmentation than usual means that forming a coalition can take longer than the 2017 record of 225 days! But such stalemates have rarely had a major impact on the economy. advocates for a higher minimum wage and lower taxes for full-time workers. While some of these plans will be diluted when the reality of coalition policy bites, other parties similarly support a supportive fiscal policy. “

The Netherlands is one of the EU’s largest and most prosperous economies and did not fare as poorly during the pandemic. The Dutch economy contracted by 4% in 2020, compared to the 6.8% contraction in the wider euro area.

Economists largely attribute this economic contraction, better than feared, at the first less strict blockade of the country last spring, its export-oriented economy and the fact that it does not depend as much on tourism – a sector that collapsed during the pandemic.

“The Dutch economy did relatively well in 2020, “said Debono, and after expanding in Q4 (fourth quarter), ended the year closer to its pre-crisis level than other major economies. The recession was superficial, as the first blockade was not as strict as elsewhere, the Dutch were already more accustomed to working from home, and tourism is a relatively small part of the economy. “

The government’s attitude towards the blockade changed over the winter, however, as cases rose dramatically, prompting the government to implement a strict blockade (by Dutch standards) in January. Tougher measures, including a night extinguisher, have sparked riots in parts of the country.

Like its neighbors, the Netherlands has seen an increase in Covid infections in recent weeks, which has been largely attributed to the spread of more virulent variants of the virus.

In addition to its difficulties, the Netherlands was one of the last countries in the bloc to initiate its coronavirus vaccination program, and immunizations proceeded at a slow pace.

The vaccination program will no doubt continue to be hampered by the decision of the Netherlands (as well as a raft from other countries) to discontinue vaccinations using AstraZeneca / Oxford University for concerns about possible side effects, despite the fact that The World Health Organization said there was no link between the shooting and an increased risk of developing blood clots.

Bars, restaurants and gyms are closed, while non-essential shops have been allowed to reopen to a limited number of customers, only by appointment, in early March. Starting March 16, stores will be allowed to reopen a limited number of customers, as long as there is enough space between them. The state of the nest – the first since the Nazi occupation in World War II – is expected to remain in force until the end of March. Public gatherings of more than two people are also prohibited.

Meanwhile, the anti-blockade sentiment continues, with anti-riot police using a water cannon to smash an anti-blockade demonstration in The Hague this weekend. This latest stalemate means that the country’s economy is unlikely to avoid a contraction in the first quarter.

“Although the government has begun to ease the blockade of 3^rd In March, many companies will be closed for two-thirds of the first quarter (first quarter) and others, such as restaurants, throughout. But the Netherlands is still relatively well placed and, as elsewhere, GDP growth is expected to return in Q2, “said Debono of Capital Economics.