It’s official. Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is officially on the market – former general pick no. 1 in the 2009 NFL Draft. While this news doesn’t set the NFL world on fire in the same way as trade rumors revolved around (current) 25-year-old QB Deshaun Watson of Houston, Stafford is one of the most interesting veteran options that become available in recent seasons.
Two of the best project analysts exist The network project Kyle Crabbs and Joe Marino. On their territory Draft Dudes podcast, Kyle and Joe discussed how crazy it would be for the Denver Broncos to trade for Stafford and instead debated what a fair cost would be to get the defender. Here is the core (listen to 32: 23-35: 01).
“This is one (first round), and pick, and a player,” Crabbs said.
“One, Drew Lock, DaeSean Hamilton, and one two (second round)?” Marino asked.
“Yes,” Crabbs said. “It simply came to our notice then [Stafford’s] is going to be 33 this season, he has a contract for the next two seasons, you will have an extended track beyond that. If it continues to play well, extend it and keep it under contract. This is not just a one-year payment. Financially, you pay him $ 43 million over two years for a guy who has a top 10 physical talent in that position. ”
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The argument for Stafford-to-Denver
The proposed package from the purchase of Stafford from Draft Dudes was a bit handy, suggesting that Denver should change options no. 9, 40, a secondary in 2022, Drew Lock, and enlargement DaeSean Hamilton. Marino and Crabbs compared this commercial offer designed for Stafford to what Denver ordered for Jay Cutler in the sad trade with the Chicago Bears in 2009.
However, the big warning they missed was that Stafford would be 33, while Cutler was only 25 when the Broncos took him to Chicago. Obviously, Stafford is a better known and proven product, but the age difference is substantial.
The trade that should be compared to when discussing a Stafford-to-Denver scenario was Carson Palmer’s Cincinnati-Oakland trade, which sent the first and second rounders to Bengals in 2011.
The Ask for Stafford: A Pretty Penny
If Denver will really be in the Stafford commercial market, there is no doubt that Broncos will have to be willing to part with general election no. 9. Some might say it’s too high a cost, but that’s just the reality for a defender like Stafford, given his talent, years of play and contract.
Beyond the first round, a choice is probably needed on Day 2 this year and an initial caliber talent. While “Draft Dudes” suggested Hamilton, I would think Tim Patrick would be a more interesting commercial chip, given the barren kid who is the big room for Lions receivers entering this offseason.
It is rumored that with the capital that the Lions will eventually receive for Stafford, the team will seek to pack the trade and general option no. 7 to be aggressive and to move to a defender. While Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will step off the table, no doubt one of BYU’s Zach Wilson, North Dakota’s Trey Lance or Ohio’s Justin Fields will be within range.
These rumors suggest that adding Lock to a potential commercial package can only be a lottery ticket thrown in the eyes of the Lions. Up? Sure, but not in the same realm as the perceived increase in the top QB prospects in this project class.
Allure of Stafford’s Attributes
Soon 33 years old, Stafford is not a spring chick, but he still has 3-8 years of good play in the tank. Currently, he is in the range of the most talented QBs from 8 to 12 in the NFL.
While the “QBWinz” crowd will show the Lions’ win / loss record throughout his career, the nuanced view of Stafford’s tenure must include an understanding of his Detroit circumstances. Whether it’s the incredible, absolutely horrible defense game in Detroit or the lack of a running game to help dictate the defenders in the box, there can be no doubt that, historically, lions have done a terrible job around it. Stafford with a competent list year after year. It may not be surprising for a team that has squandered Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson, but I deviate.
Locking question
The Broncos are continually tied to quarterbacks until the early stages of this off-season, probably largely due to the NFL’s general perception of Lock. Ranking in the top 5 in many important categories, coming out of the seasons back with constant injuries over time and with only two years left of contractual control over the former second-round pick, Denver is by no means “married” to the lock.
Those close to the situation may cry for patience and longer, the disgusting circumstances surrounding the Lock situation are “unfair”, but simply, the league is not right. Either you overcome adversity or you fade into the annals of time.
These are the breaks in the NFL. It will never be right. Correct or not, Lock did not do enough to justify a incontestable the starting point for the Broncos in 2021. As the children say, “they are the breaks.”
Paton would have missed not calling Detroit
The merit of whether or not the new CEO of Denver, George Paton, should appeal to Stafford is unquestionable. Stafford would be an upgrade to the position of defender, giving the Broncos a top 12 signal caller surrounded by a crazy level of talent, albeit young, on the offensive side of the ball. The most important questions to ask, however, are, what will be the cost? And is it worth it?
It would take some kind of bias (if not cognitive dissonance) to suggest that Paton shouldn’t pick up the phone and call to check the cost of acquiring Stafford. It remains to be seen whether Paton will be willing to part with a decent amount of capital in a market full of absolutely desperate teams for a quarterback this year, such as the San Francisco 49ers, Indianapolis Colts, Washington Football Team and New England Patriots.
It will all come down to what Broncos thinks about Stafford, the current roster, Lock, and what gives this team the best chance to compete in the offensive juggler that has become AFC West.
Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @MileHighHuddle.