Many infectious disease experts in the United States are cautiously optimistic. Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths have fallen sharply in recent weeks, as the country has fallen from its deadliest rise to date, and vaccination campaigns are receiving more blows in people’s arms. The warmer weather is around the corner.
However, the hard-won progress against the coronavirus pandemic remains fragile, say public health experts. The number of cases is still high and could be paid; current levels of accumulated immunity are not sufficient to safely eliminate precautions; and more dangerous variants threaten to gain a foothold in the US and exploit safety gaps.
“Things are fragile. Now is not the time to relax the restrictions, “said Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, on Friday. “We can’t feel comfortable.”
Covid-19 cases in the United States have fallen in the past few weeks, with the seven-day average falling 74 percent from its Jan. 11 peak, Dr. Walensky said Monday. The average number of daily hospital admissions, now 6,500 per day, has dropped by 60% and is at its lowest point since the fall.
Daily reported cases of Covid-19 in the US
Note: For all 50 states and DC, US territories and cruises. last update
Source: Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering
There is no single explanation for the decline, health officials say, but the biggest contributing factor is likely to be behavior change. People are probably taking more precautions after the holiday season and a deadly winter in which the United States has exceeded 500,000 deaths in total due to Covid-19. In addition, state and local authorities have increased restrictions in response to the growing number.
Epidemiologists also estimate that at least a quarter of the population had Covid-19, most developing some level of immune response. This, in combination with the relatively smaller number of people who have been completely immunized, reduces the number of sensitive people in the population and helps to slow the spread. Vaccinations have also led to a reduction in hospitalizations and deaths, after being launched to residents in nursing homes and long-term care facilities.
“We’re coming down from a holiday balloon and coming out of a very dark, cold winter that could have kept people inside,” said Darlene Bhavnani, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Texas at Austin. “I hope that by being outdoors more and without major holidays, we will continue to see these declines.”
Some states and counties have begun to ease security measures as conditions have improved. Almost a year after the pandemic, many people and communities are eager to return to a more normal version of life. But public health authorities recommend caution, as another increase in spring cases is still on the table.
“The pressure to get back to normal will be huge and irresistible,” said Robert Wachter, president of the medical department at the University of California, San Francisco. “My hope is that we think about it, we don’t just declare victory and open the gates. This virus is smart and will come back to bite us. “
Weakening mitigation measures too aggressively or early will likely lead to a return of cases – as happened last spring and summer, say Dr. Bhavnani and other health officials.
The daily confirmed cases and hospitalizations, although they have decreased considerably since January, are at a level similar to the peaks observed last summer, and the decreases have been blocked in the last week. Cases have risen in the past three days compared to the previous week, and the recent change “must be taken extremely seriously,” said Dr. Walensky.
The amount of immunity accumulated by both infection and vaccination is still far from 70% to 80% or more needed to stop the spread of population-only immunity.
Newer and more transmissible variants complicate the calculation. The variant that appeared in the UK can spread much more easily than previous versions of the virus and could become the dominant strain in the US in March. A variant that has emerged in South Africa has demonstrated some resistance to currently available vaccines and therapies.
“I fear that once we reach a level that feels safer for society and as people decide to loosen restrictions on communities or themselves, we will see this return in cases,” said Ajay Sethi, an epidemiologist at infectious diseases at the University of Wisconsin -Madison. “And in this case, it will be a return to the new version that is harder to control.”
States and cities have responded to the number improvement with a package of rules and regulations based on guidance from their respective health departments, while elected officials are trying to navigate the ever-changing pandemic landscape. Some states, such as Iowa and North Dakota, have given up their masks.
New York State, which recently reopened the indoor restaurant in New York City and limited-capacity arenas, is set to expand the rules for visiting the nursing home, allow 25 percent participation in movie theaters and expand participation in weddings. State health officials are cautiously optimistic. “So far, we’ve taken over 3 million photos, but everyone needs to remember that this pandemic is not over,” said Jeffrey Hammond, a spokesman for the New York State Department of Health.
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In Virginia, Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam said Wednesday he will remove a statewide restriction and restrictions on the number of people allowed in open-air assemblies beginning in March.
Lilian Peake, a state epidemiologist at the Virginia Department of Health, said the vaccines offer the greatest hope for fewer infections and a return to normalcy. The vaccines we have are working well and are a way forward, said Dr. Peake.
Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego has said she will rest only after all residents and visitors to the city are vaccinated.
Arizona has experienced a severe increase in coronavirus infections reported in the summer of 2020, so that those new cases are overshadowed by an even greater increase in the fall and winter. In the summer, confirmed daily cases were regularly over 5,000, while the number of cases in January regularly exceeded 10,000 per day, according to data from the Arizona Department of Health Services. In contrast, the daily number of weekly cases was about 1,000.
“Like many people, I am encouraged to see the number of cases decline,” said Democrat Gallego. “At the same time, I’m worried about celebrating too soon.”
Write to Brianna Abbott at [email protected] and Talal Ansari at [email protected]
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