Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will contest his fourth election in two years on Tuesday, fighting for a parliamentary majority that could help him reduce his corruption process.
Why does it matter: Three inconclusive elections have left Israel stuck in a protracted political crisis as Netanyahu struggles for its political and legal survival. This time, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister faces a divided opposition and has a clear chance of eventually winning a 61-seat majority.
Game status: The latest polls show that Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc and a broad anti-Netanyahu bloc have both won 60 seats.
What to look for: If Netanyahu manages to reach 61, he will form the most religious and conservative coalition in the country’s history. His rivals say such a government could challenge the country’s democratic character.
- Netanyahu denies that he intends to fire the attorney general or pass laws to suspend his corruption process, but several of his future coalition partners have voiced support for such steps.
- If Netanyahu’s bloc fails to win a majority, it is likely that Israel will move to a fifth round.
News management: Both Netanyahu and his main rival, centrist Yair Lapid, gathered on the eve of the election.
- Lapid must increase participation in Tel Aviv, Haifa and other major cities in central Israel.
- Netanyahu is trying to mobilize voters in the cities of his Likud party in northern and southern Israel and Jerusalem.
- The result could be reduced to the question of which of the small parties on both sides reach the electoral threshold of 3.25% to enter the Knesset.
- Participation in Israel’s Arab minority, expected to decline this time, will also be crucial in determining the outcome.
Flashback: Netanyahu and his centrist rival Benny Gantz signed a power-sharing agreement last April that outraged many of Gantz’s supporters, allowing Netanyahu to retain power for 18 months, while stipulating that Gantz would he then became prime minister.
- Before power could change hands, the government collapsed in December, alongside Gantz’s political position.
To enlarge: One of the most interesting players in this election is Naftali Bennett, a former right-wing technology entrepreneur who had recently been seen as a kingdom, as none of the blocs could reach 61 without him.
- His party’s poll numbers began to decline when Netanyahu told supporters that Bennett would ally with Lapid against his conservative colleagues.
- Under pressure, Bennett entered a pro-Netanyahu channel and signed a document on live TV promising not to join a Lapid-led government – effectively aligning with Netanyahu.
What’s next: Exit polls will be published at 21:00 local time (15:00 ET), but polls will be extremely cautious, as thousands of ballots will be counted late due to COVID-19 restrictions.
Bottom line: These elections will probably be decided by one or two seats, which means that several thousand votes could change the result and the whole country.
Go deeper: Thousands protest outside Netanyahu’s house.