Preliminary data show that the new ideas will control Congress. However, it is not yet possible to determine how many seats each party won.
According to the latest data revealed by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), until the closing of this note, the New Ideas party will take over the majority control of the Legislative Assembly, with over 320,000 votes at national level.
However, these figures still do not reflect how many legislative seats the New Ideas party would have won across the country or how many seats it will be able to gain in its coalitions with GANA, how many MPs will have the last party, also in the ruling party, or if Democratic Change, another close to Bukele, will manage to sneak a legislator.
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The results also do not allow us to know how opponents of ARENA, FMLN, PCN, PDC, Nuestro Tiempo and Vamos will be able to face deputies from the Nayib Bukele government.
However, it can be anticipated that Nayib Bukele will govern the last three years of administration with a friendly Assembly.
Slow process to know the results
The results of the February 28 elections came with a drop. This, after a few hours in which the computer system was saturated because there were four million people per second who consulted the website of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), as reported by the magistrate of this body, Noel Orellana, who warned that for this reason It was not possible to observe the data that were processed by the voting councils (JRV).
When the Court’s website was published, a main chart containing general party voting data at the national level was observed.
This reflected a wide preference for the New Ideas party. However, this only reflects the number of votes, not seats, as their allocation is done in a more complex way by the system of coefficients and residues.
But the advantage was clear. The EST chart showed that, with 2,216 records processed out of a total of 8,451 at the national level (ie 26.22%), Nuevas Ideas accumulated over 320,000 votes at the national level. They were followed by the coalition NI-Ghana, ARENA, FMLN, GANA, PCN, PDC, Nuestro Tiempo, Vamos and CD.
While in San Salvador, a department in which 24 seats are contested, with 76 minutes processed out of a total of 2,206 (ie 3.45%), Nuevas Ideas led the way with 10,446 votes; followed by the ARENA coalition with 1,740 votes; FMLN with 904.79 votes; WIN by 620 votes; Our time with 507; We are going with 303 votes; PCN with 270 votes; PDC with 197 votes, CD with 108 votes and the impartial deputy Leonardo Bonilla with 42 votes. However, these results are too small to predict how many of the 24 MPs in the most populous department will go to each party in battle.
In La Libertad, where 10 seats are contested, only 9% of the minutes were processed, out of a total of 988 at the close of this note. The TSE website reported 89 polls, giving a favorable result to New Ideas with 14,378 votes. ARENA came in second with 4,157 votes; WINS with 1,343 votes and Nuestro Tiempo took third place with 1,054 votes.
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In San Miguel, out of a total of 668 records, 59 were processed at one in the morning, on Monday, which is equivalent to 8.83% of the total records.
According to this result, the new ideas reflected 6,388 votes; followed by FMLN with 1,444 votes; PDC with 1,171 votes; then ARENA with 855 votes; followed by WINS with 820 votes, these being the parties with the highest number of votes.
Electoral environment at the Damián Villacorta school, in Santa Tecla. Photo / René Quintanilla
In San Miguel, unlike other departments, FMLN managed to rank second, but it must be considered that the number of votes does not represent the number of seats that each party will win.
These figures simply serve to give a picture of the political landscape in El Salvador at this time. It will not be until the end of the examination of each department when it is known how many seats each party will get and, later, it will be known who are the deputies who will occupy each one when the preferences are counted.
Legislative Assembly, Bukele’s pending liaison
On February 3, 2019, with approximately 53% of the vote, Nayib Bukele won the presidency of the Republic in the first round.
This gave him wide legitimacy and his popularity grew, but due to the type of electoral calendar in El Salvador, he still did not have deputies from his own movement.
Therefore, 2021 was the key date for the ruling party, as this result will depend on how easily Nayib Bukele will be able to govern the three years he remains in the post of chief executive.
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It is clear that his party, New Ideas, will have more deputies than any other party and that, together with GANA and CD, it will add as many. However, the composition of the new legislature is not yet known.
This will also depend on whether the president can promote his agenda without problems with the deputies under his control or whether he will have to negotiate with other parties to get the missing votes for various initiatives in Congress.
Within the legislature, there are three types of majorities, each with its own powers (see attached numbers). The simple majority allows governing in most areas and is achieved with 43 out of 84 deputies. The listed one, with 56, opens the door to second-degree appointments and debt, among other areas. And overqualifications open the door to limit the most protected constitutional rights and ratify treaties on territorial boundaries. With the final results, it will be known what the ruling party will be able to achieve and what will be the key that the opposition will have.