One week before Christmas, virtually the entire United States is in danger.
Harvard Global Health Institute / Brown School of Public Health
It is the season to be extremely careful if you plan to travel for Christmas.
Public health experts had warned that Thanksgiving would be an overworked event, yet millions of Americans traveled over the holiday weekend. Now, a week before Christmas, only one mainland US state remains outside the “high risk” category.
However, about 84.5 million Americans are expected to travel between December 23 and January 3, according to an AAA report. While this has dropped by about 34 million passengers from last year, public health experts recommend not traveling at this time.
“The CDC continues to recommend postponing travel and staying home, as this is the best way to protect yourself and others this year,” according to recent winter vacation guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The country has never been at greater risk due to the pandemic. For the second day in a row, the US set records for new cases and hospitalizations yesterday, according to the Covid Tracking Project.
Here is a state-by-state summary of the most risky states to visit a week before Christmas, along with an overview of current Covid-19 protocols.
1) Tennessee
Risk factors: No state-wide mask warrant – 128.3 new daily cases per 100,000 people – 18.1% of Covid tests are positive
As Tennessee climbs to the top of the national charts for daily Covid-19 cases, front-line doctors are advocating with Governor Bill Lee to mandate masks statewide. Currently, Tennessee recommends but does not require face masks or physical distances in public. Several counties – including those containing Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville and Chattanooga – have adopted local mask mandates.
The volunteer state registered 128.3 new cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 people, on average per week, according to the risk assessment tool from Harvard Global Health Institute and Brown School of Public Health. Any state with more than 25 new cases per 100,000 people a day is colored red on the map, which means that it is considered “at a tipping point”. The risk level in Tennessee is 413% above this threshold.
The positive rate in Tennessee is 18.1%, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The positive percentage should ideally be below 5%, according to the World Health Organization. Positivity in Tennessee has risen for the past two consecutive weeks.
2) Rhode Island
Risk factors: National mask mandate – 110.4 new daily cases per 100,000 people – 7.2% of Covid tests are positive
Tiny Rhode Island is currently the hot spot in the Northeast. Earlier this month, Governor Gina Raimondo extended restrictions on businesses, including closing bars and gyms and reducing restaurant capacity to 33%. Facial masks have been mandated in Rhode Island since May.
The nation’s smallest state currently accumulates an average of 110.4 new daily cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 people. This is 342% higher than the “peak” threshold.
The positive rate in Rhode Island is 7.2%. Positivity has increased in the last two consecutive weeks.
3) Arizona
Risk factors: No mask mandate at the state level – 91.5 new daily cases per 100,000 people – 14.5% of Covid tests are positive
Although his state is once again a major hotspot for the spread of Covid-19, and despite growing pressure from public health officials, Gov. Doug Ducey has refused to issue a state-wide masked warrant. Several Arizona cities and counties have full mask orders, including counties hosting Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tempe and Tucson.
In the last week, Arizona has recorded an average of 91.5 new daily cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 people. This is 266% above the “peak” threshold.
The positive percentage of the state is 14.5%, which is almost three times higher than what is considered safe. Positivity has increased in the last two consecutive weeks.
4) Indiana
Risk factors: State-wide mask mandate – 90.2 new daily cases per 100,000 people – 12.4% of Covid tests positive
Last week, Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb said his state was “on fire” with coronavirus as the number of high-risk counties doubled from the previous week. Holcomb recently extended a state-run mask and tightened crowd size restrictions.
Indiana currently has an average of 90.2 new daily cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 people, which is 261% above the “peak” threshold.
Indiana’s positive percentage rate is currently 12.4%, more than double the target. Positivity has increased in the last two consecutive weeks.
5) California
Risk factors: State-wide mask mandate – 87.9 new daily cases per 100,000 people – 12.8% of Covid tests positive
California is breaking records in both new cases and hospitalizations. The state has activated its “mass fatality” program, which coordinates mutual aid between several government agencies. In particular, if the availability of the intensive care unit falls below 15% in a given region, a three-week home stay order is issued. Governor Gavin Newsom’s masked term has been in effect since June 18.
California currently has 87.9 new daily cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 people, which is 252% above the “peak” threshold.
The positive percentage of the state is currently 12.8%. Positivity has increased in the last two consecutive weeks.
6) Pennsylvania
Risk factors: National mask mandate – 83.1 new daily cases per 100,000 people – 40.0% of Covid tests are positive
Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf has issued restrictions on Covid since Jan. 4, which includes banning indoor dining at restaurants and bars and closing gyms and fitness centers. The state has a universal mask mandate in place.
In the last week, Pennsylvania registered an average of 83.1 new daily cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 people, with over 232% above the “peak” threshold.
The positive rate in Pennsylvania is 40%, eight times higher than what is considered safe. Positivity has increased in the last two consecutive weeks.
7) Utah
Risk factors: National mask mandate – 82.8 new daily cases per 100,000 people – 18.1% of Covid tests are positive
The good news is that the number of new daily cases of Covid in Utah has dropped 18% since last month, when Gov. Gary Herbert imposed an emergency statement that includes a statewide mask requirement. People must wear a face that is covered in public and whenever they are less than six meters from someone in a separate household.
In the last week, Utah has recorded an average of 82.8 new daily cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 people. The bad news: it’s still 231% above the “peak” threshold.
The positive percentage of the state is 18.1%, which is more than three times higher than what is considered safe. Positivity has increased in the last two consecutive weeks.
8) Delaware
Risk factors: National mask mandate – 81.2 new daily cases per 100,000 people – 8.9% of Covid tests are positive
Delaware Governor John Carney’s declaration of a state of emergency requires coverage in all public and private indoor assemblies where people from other households are present, regardless of their ability to maintain physical distance.
In the past week, Delaware has recorded an average of 81.2 new daily cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 people, 225% above the “peak” threshold.
The positive percentage of the state is 8.9%, almost double what is considered safe. Positivity has increased in the last two consecutive weeks.
9) Oklahoma
Risk factors: No mask mandate at the state level – 80.5 new daily cases per 100,000 people – 20.8% of Covid tests are positive
Despite contracting Covid-19 himself last summer, Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt recommends masks in public, but turned down applications for a state mandate. Several cities, including Tulsa, have adopted mask requirements.
Oklahoma is currently accumulating 80.5 new daily cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 people. The number of new daily cases is 222% higher than the “peak” threshold.
The positive percentage in Wyoming is 20.8%, four times higher than the 5% target. Positivity has increased in the last two consecutive weeks.
10) Nevada
Risk factors: National mask mandate – 79.3 new daily cases per 100,000 people – 15.9% of Covid tests are positive
Nevada Governor Steve Sisolak has extended assembly restrictions and limited capacity in bars and restaurants until Jan. 15 in a bid to slow the spread of COVID-19. There has been a mandatory statewide face-covering policy since June.
In the last week, Nevada recorded an average of 79.3 new daily cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 people, which is 217% higher than the “peak” threshold.
The positive rate in Nevada is 15.9%, more than three times higher than what is considered safe. Positivity has increased in the last two consecutive weeks.
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