If I had asked you to predict 12 and a half months ago as America began to block whether suicides and road deaths will increase or decrease in 2020, you would have guessed that there would be many more of the first and many more. few of the latter. And when I say “you,” I mean all of you. It seemed a fact that mass unemployment plus intense social isolation plus the stress of multiple life disruptions (e.g., school closures) that came with the existence of the pandemic would cause some people to take their own lives, which in normal times would have been good. And because so many businesses and jobs were closed and so many Americans were afraid to gather and risk infection, there would be far fewer reasons to drive and therefore fewer dangerous car accidents.
Elementary logic in both cases. Also wrong in both cases.
First, traffic deaths:
The National Council for Nonprofit Safety estimates in a report issued on Thursday that 42,060 people died in vehicle accidents in 2020, an increase of 8% compared to 2019 and the first jump in four years.
In addition, the fatality rate per 100 million miles increased by 24%, the highest annual percentage increase since the council began collecting data in 1923 …
Last year’s death was the most since 2007, when 43,945 people died in car accidents. In addition, the safety council estimates that 4.8 million people were injured in accidents last year.
Traffic deaths rose last year, even though Americans drove about 13 percent fewer miles than in 2019. How?
Circumstantial evidence indicates greater risk-taking by drivers. USA Today notes that the Minnesota State Patrol handed out twice as many driving tickets over 100 mph last year as in 2019. Precisely because the roads are less crowded, drivers drive like maniacs, which means more fatal accidents. Hit a pole at 40 mph and you could survive; hits the same pole at 80 mph and no. Pandemic stress probably also contributes: a driver who is depressed with a lot in mind is a more distracted driver. And higher alcohol and drug use during the pandemic should mean that a larger share of people behind the wheel are under the influence.
In short, it’s basically Thunderdome on American roads. Fewer people drive, but the average driver you meet is more likely to be in a dangerously bad head space. Result: more deaths.
Explaining the decline in suicides is more difficult:
Politicians have repeatedly told us that the blockades cause an increased number of suicidal deaths. We kept asking to see the data. Now, we have it, and apparently that wasn’t true. In 2020, suicide deaths were lower than in the last three years. https://t.co/YbLCmd0c3o pic.twitter.com/PNEshYyQfV
– Elizabeth Jacobs, Dr. 🏴☠️ (@TheAngryEpi) April 4, 2021
This seems so unlikely that you wonder if the data is correct. I should note that it is “preliminary”, so maybe it will eventually be revised upwards. But suppose it is correct. What could explain this? I posted this question on Twitter and got a series of smart answers back:
1. Although suicides have decreased, fatal overdoses are on the rise. Some people who have been depressed and may have taken their own lives because of it may have lost their OD before being able to do so due to increased drug use.
2. Similarly, a number of people, especially the elderly, who allegedly died as a result of suicide, ended up giving up COVID before he could.
3. Despite mass unemployment, some lower-class finances could have been temporarily improved due to stimulus controls and reduced federal unemployment. A Gallup poll conducted in June last year, two months after the blockades began, found more Americans financially upset than they were in 2017. Some who could have given in to despair and committed suicide due to poverty in normal times could have received a postponement by COVID Improvement.
4. Forcing people to isolate themselves from their families could have caused them to have more meaningful social interactions, which stimulated their mood. I have heard many parents say how much they have enjoyed extra quality time with their children in the last year, despite the difficulties of educating them. Some adults who have worsened in life due to pressure at work could have obtained an unexpected perspective check to spend more time with loved ones and regained their will to live.
5, Suicidal people rarely do the deed in front of others. Even if someone who commits suicide does not enjoy extra time with family, as a purely logistical issue, the quarantine left them less time alone. As Alex Griswold he says, spouses and children are in a position where they are all, but forced to watch over each other 24 hours a day. Fewer suicide opportunities mean fewer suicides.
6. Some of us do better on our own than when we are forced to mingle with others. Someone with social anxiety who is no longer required to go to the office every day and feel “judged” by those around them may have reduced their stress after being allowed to work from home. Or maybe it’s the opposite – people who stand for themselves and have been depressed by having sudden pre-pandemic social contact, have seen others reach out to greet them as pandemic loneliness spread in the population. That little bit of extra virtual socializing might have been enough to prevent some suicides.
7. Many friends on Twitter pointed out that the knowledge that others are isolated could have made some depressed people feel less bad about themselves. It’s easy to despair when things seem to be going well for everyone but you; “What’s wrong with me, why can’t I be happy?” The FOMO factor make up the mess. But when everyone is miserable for the same reason, the depressed person is no longer judged so harshly. Everyone is suddenly in the same boat, even if they are each in their own secluded cabin. Eliminating the fear of losing can save some lives.
The bad thing about all of the above is that most of the factors indicate an increase in suicide with the end of the pandemic. The FOMO factor will return dramatically as most Americans begin to spend; they will be forced to return to the office in many cases; families will disperse during the day; federal width will end. Of course, there will be even more opportunities for socializing avoid some suicides by people who would have committed suicide if they had been forced to isolate themselves at home for much longer. But if we should now predict whether more or fewer people will die at their hands in 2021 than last year, I do not know that “fewer” are a strong bet just because the country will soon return to normal.
By the way, look again at the 2020 column in the tweet above. Deaths have risen sharply in a variety of categories, from diabetes to stroke to Alzheimer’s to heart disease to “unintentional injuries.” One reason for this could be to list comorbidities as contributing factors to death certificates in COVID cases. Another, I suppose, is the greater reluctance of people to seek medical treatment for conditions unrelated to COVID during the pandemic for fear of being infected in hospital. I remember that the New York EMTs reported last spring that the number of people they would find dead in their homes on arrival after the 911 call was extremely high in a normal year. This is probably due to the fact that a lot of Americans tried to manage their pre-existing diseases as well as possible on their own, looking to stay away from the doctor’s offices and finally asked for help only when they reached the point of crisis. COVID did not cause these deaths, but contributed indirectly.