The mutant coronavirus strain first identified in the United Kingdom remains low in the United States, but doubles its reach about every 10 days, according to a study published Sunday by researchers.
The study strengthened modeling by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which predicted last month that the more contagious variant could be the dominant strain in the United States until March.
The US still has time to take steps to slow the new strain of the virus, the researchers wrote, but warned that without “decisive and immediate public health action”, the variant is likely to have devastating consequences for COVID-19 mortality and morbidity. USA in a few months. “
The research, partially funded by the CDC and the National Institutes of Health, as well as the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, was posted on medRxiv, a prepress server, and has not yet been evaluated by colleagues.
The new coronavirus strain, also known as B.1.1.7, spread rapidly through the United Kingdom and became the dominant strain in that country, which is, by some measures, the most affected in Europe.
Health officials said existing vaccines are likely to work against new strains, although their effectiveness may be somewhat reduced.
The study found that there are “relatively small” amounts of B.1.1.7. In the US at the moment, however, given its rapid spread, it is “almost certainly destined to become the dominant descendant of SARS-CoV-2 by March 2021.”
The new strain accounted for 3.6 percent of US coronavirus cases in the last week of January, according to the study.
The researchers noted that tracking the national spread of the strain is complicated by the lack of a national genomics surveillance program, such as those found in the UK, Denmark and other countries.
They wrote that they had “relatively robust” estimates from California and Florida, but that data from outside those states was limited.
The growth rate of the virus diverged in the two states, with B.1.1.7. seeming to spread a little slower in California. The study authors wrote that the strain doubles approximately every 12.2 days in California, 9.1 days in Florida and 9.8 days nationwide.
The study supports the conclusion that the new strain is already spreading through “significant Community transmission”.
The authors suggest that the virus was introduced into the country through international travel and spread through domestic travel as millions of Americans crossed the country around Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year holidays in the fall and winter.
The authors also found that the variant is growing somewhat slower than in European countries, which they said requires further investigation, but may be the result of the paucity of current data or other factors – including “competition from other variants.” transmissible ”.
Other worrying strains of coronavirus have been detected in South Africa and elsewhere.
The researchers warned that their findings “strengthen the need” for robust surveillance in the US of possible new and emerging coronavirus variants.
“Because US laboratories sequence only a small subset of SARS-CoV-2 samples, the true diversity of the SARS-CoV-2 sequence in this country is still unknown,” they wrote.
“More established surveillance programs in other countries have provided important warnings about concerns that may impact the United States, with B.1.1.7 being a single option that demonstrates the ability to grow exponentially,” they added.
“Only with consistent, impartial sequencing at scale, which includes all geographical and demographic populations, including those often underrepresented, together with the continuation of international scientific collaborations and open data sharing, will we be able to accurately assess and track new developments during COVID- 19 pandemics, “the researchers wrote.
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