Studios are experimenting with release models that mean this for film piracy

2021 will be a very different year for the film industry. The studios, hoping to find ways to make a profit on high-budget blockbusters, turned to new ways of launching films.

For Warner Bros., the pandemic led parent company AT&T to decide to release all of its movies in theaters and on HBO Max on the same day. Universal, owned by Comcast, has chosen to enter into agreements with individual cinemas to shorten the time their films have to stay in cinemas before switching to on-demand premium videos.

Then there are those like Disney who, for the most part, have postponed most of their movies until 2021 and got their hands on their own streaming service.

However, box office analysts will not be the only ones looking forward to watching the performance of these films next year. Piracy experts look forward to how these new launch methods will impact illegal transmission.

“As a researcher in data science, this is a dream,” said Brett Danaher, a professor of entertainment analysis and data science at Chapman University. “It’s such a great experiment.”

In 2021, piracy experts told CNBC that they have theories about how pirates will react to these different models, but are not entirely sure what will happen.

For one, piracy is a difficult thing to follow. Experts can track some downloads from major piracy websites, but once the file is downloaded, it can be distributed and streamed to thousands of other viewers privately.

Experts also offer a range of what piracy could cost the US economy, instead of a firm number. Last year, the Global Innovation Policy Center estimated that global online piracy cost the US economy between $ 29.9 billion and $ 71 billion in lost revenue each year.

But much can be learned from people who hack. Regarding the data, experts such as Andy Chatterley, CEO and co-founder of MUSO, a global authority on digital piracy, can provide information to media companies around the world.

First, Chatterley noted that the higher the buzz around a blockbuster, the more piracy will increase. Movies that have big marketing campaigns, sustained demand from fervent fans and a lot of media exposure will generate more illegal online downloads.

MUSO data also suggests that piracy increases when high-quality versions of films are available on piracy sites. For example, “Bad Boys for Life” hit theaters in January and saw a “fairly light” amount of piracy, Chatterley said. However, when it became available on demand in mid-March, there was a significant increase in online piracy.

Instead, Disney’s “Mulan”, which immediately went live, saw a massive increase on launch day and then decreased overtime.

“The piracy was front-loading,” Chatterley said. “But piracy was not necessarily bigger or smaller.”

For companies like AT&T that will release high-quality versions of the movies on the first day, there are several ways to deter piracy. For example, two weeks before “Wonder Woman 1984” debuted in North America in theaters and on HBO Max, the film was released internationally.

This allowed the public to see the film first in cinemas, before there was a high-quality copy placed on piracy sites. This is especially important because HBO Max is only a domestic product at this time.

“Of course, you have people who always want to hack,” said Michael Smith, a professor of information technology and marketing at Carnegie Mellon University. “The people you’re worried about are the ones who would have legally bought your content, but found it [piracy] it is more convenient. “

Smith said most people who hack do so because they have no other legal way to consume a product. If he had offered an easier legal way to these viewers, he would have paid to watch the film.

While online piracy can have a negative financial impact on media companies, the data collected by experts can help these companies determine what their audience wants to watch. Data from groups like MUSO can tell companies which movies or TV shows they should buy or license either domestically or to international locations.

For example, the European Union’s Intellectual Property Office ruled that “The Mummy” had been disproportionately hacked in Spain and that the TV show “South Park” was an illegal popular download in Finland.

This information tells Universal that it may want to make “The Mummy” more available in Spain and Viacom that it may want to enter into an agreement with a Finnish streaming service.

As Danaher said, 2021 will be a big experiment for the industry in terms of piracy. It is the first time that there will be several different launch strategies, all taking place at the same time and for an extended period of time.

Even if some titles are more popular than others, there should be trends in the data that show how people consume their entertainment.

As in the previous year, it will be difficult for experts to determine a clear financial impact, especially because the pandemic is likely to affect the way people choose to watch certain films. Those who are unable to go to the movie theaters may choose to stream live when available, but may instead choose illegal methods for major movies.

In addition, once premium on-demand video becomes an earlier-than-usual purchase option, it may not be immediately clear whether on-demand purchases or piracy are cannibalizing theater revenue.

“Unfortunately, I can’t tell you who will win the horse race,” Danaher said.

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.