“A possible outbreak of severe storms, including several long-track tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds, will exist in part of the lower Mississippi Valley and southeastern states Thursday through Thursday evening,” said the Storm Prediction Center. (SPC).
Long trajectory tornadoes are tornadoes that stay on the ground for an extended period of time. Most tornadoes are on the ground for just minutes, but with some serious events, there can be tornadoes on the ground for hours. This type of tornado is known for causing widespread damage.
The latest forecast shows a level 4 “moderate risk” for severe storms in northern Mississippi, southwestern Tennessee and northwestern Alabama. This level 4 out of 5 risk category means “widespread severe storms are likely,” according to the SPC, with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes all possible.
This “moderate risk” area includes major cities such as Memphis and Nashville in Tennessee, Jackson in Mississippi, and Birmingham and Huntsville in Alabama.
“The ingredients will be combined on Thursday for another severe weather outbreak in the south,” said CNN meteorologist Chad Myers. “Highly humid air in the Gulf of Mexico combined with strong upward movement will cause multiple rounds of severe weather, including rotating storms that can trigger tornadoes.”
Ingredients were there last week and tornadoes developed, but not as strongly as predictors thought possible. None of the 49 tornadoes was stronger than an EF-2 on a 0 to 5 scale.
While the right atmospheric ingredients were in place, they didn’t mix exactly enough to produce the violent tornadoes predicted last Thursday.
“It’s like putting too many carrots in chicken soup, you end up with sweet carrot soup and not chicken soup,” Myers said.
Thursday could be terrible and potentially another high-risk day if the right mix of ingredients come together.
“Given the very favorable weather forecast in this region and the potential for numerous supercells, an upgrade to High Risk for multiple strong to potentially violent long-track tornadoes may be required in a later update of the forecast,” said the SPC.
Tornado opportunity appears on the first Wednesday night
Another active weather pattern across the country is the introduction of storm systems that will cause more storms.
A new storm system located over the southwestern US is set to storm into the plains by Wednesday evening. This will be the main driver for this new severe weather event.
On Wednesday night, the SPC predicts severe weather probability from central Texas through Mississippi, with the greatest risk in central and northeast Texas. This part of Texas faces a level 3 out of 5, “increased risk” category for severe weather.
During the day, scattered thunderstorms can break out over parts of central Texas, with more widespread rain near the Texas Panhandle.
Wednesday nights will become more active as a line of storms forms, putting the risk mainly for high winds and hail, but also tornadoes further east.
Flash Flood Watches are currently in effect for locations near the central Gulf Coast, including New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Gulfport, Mississippi.
Severe storm threat will be highest on Thursday
Wednesday’s storms will move east and center over the deep south on Thursday as the risk area for major storms is likely to grow and widen. Strong storms will be possible from the Gulf Coast to northern Ohio.
On Thursday morning, some stronger storms could be possible in this risk area, but the most active weather starts in the afternoon when multiple supercell thunderstorms could form.
“Right now, the best potential for strong tornadoes appears to be extending from parts of central / northern MS to western / mid-TN and central / northern AL, especially Thursday afternoon and evening as storms generally move to the Northeast” , the SPC said Wednesday afternoon.
The forecast shows that atmospheric conditions will be ripe and “support supercells with low mesocyclones capable of producing strong tornadoes and large hail,” the SPC said.
During the night hours of Thursday, the storms are expected to evolve into a line running to parts of Alabama and Georgia.
Friday should dry most of the south, except for parts of Georgia and the Carolinas, where weaker showers and isolated thunderstorms can linger.