SALT LAKE CITY – For doctors like Dr. Mark Briesacher, COVID-19 trends over the past two months have been a welcome sight.
The seven-day average in Utah of new COVID-19 cases has dropped 87 percent since its last peak on Jan. 9, according to the Utah Department of Health. The current average is now 419 new cases per day, which is the lowest figure in the last six months.
As the cases decreased, the pressure that the disease forced on the hospitals also slowed down. As of Friday, there were 130 people hospitalized for COVID-19, which is the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization since mid-September.
More severe cases have also decreased: 74% of the ICUs of the state reference center have been completed, which is a tick below the warning threshold. State-level intensive care units were filled with 69% as well, which is also below the threshold, according to data from the state health department.
The data also show that both reference center ICUs and state-level ICUs reached 10% of ICU capacity as a result of COVID-19 this week and for the first time since mid-September. Both reached 44% and 45% on January 15.
In addition, the COVID-19 vaccine has been opened to all Utahns 16 and over, which is set to drastically change the number of Utahns vaccinated in the coming weeks.
“We are excited about the trends we are seeing, especially because it means so much to patients and families,” said Briesacher, chief executive officer at Intermountain Healthcare. “Fewer people in the hospital, fewer people who become critically ill. This is very good to see.”
Although there is good news about COVID-19 trends, Briesacher said there is still a risk associated with celebrating the end of the pandemic too soon. That’s why he and other public health experts are cautiously optimistic, heading into the school’s spring break and as the state-wide mask mandate technically ends on April 10th.
To begin with, more people need to be vaccinated and it is impossible to vaccinate at least 70% of the estimated adult population in a week. Briesacher also pointed out that although cases have dropped significantly in the last few weeks, they are still relatively high, from 400 to 500 new cases reported each week.
I have a lot of empathy for the fact that this disease continues to create such a burden for our communities and for individuals and families. We owe it to them to remain vigilant and continue to move forward in the right ways until we can truly prevent this.
–Dr. Mark Briesacher, chief executive officer at Intermountain Healthcare
Dr. Angela Dunn, the state’s epidemiologist, also pointed out in recent weeks that the number of new cases was flat.
“That’s another lot of new cases,” Briesacher said during a question and answer session on Friday. “We still have a transmission rate in this range of 7% to 8%, so we need to remain vigilant when it comes to infection control, especially in healthcare facilities.”
He compared the pandemic to a marathon – it’s perfect to celebrate victories along the way, but the race is not over. The idea is that the ultimate goal is not for the number of COVID-19 infections to return to the levels observed six months ago, but to put an end to as many new cases, severe cases and deaths as possible.
“I think it’s good for a community, especially our communities, to feel good about how we’ve responded,” he said. “Let’s stay vigilant. Let’s not lose our advantage; let’s not forget how serious this is. There are still Utahns dying because of COVID-19 and when you compare yourself to what we went through, you can falsely conclude that, boy , things are OK because they are much better.
“But if you focus on the absolute number … these are people and families who are affected in such a hard way,” he continued. “I have a lot of empathy for the fact that this disease continues to create such a burden for our communities and for individuals and families. We owe it to them to remain vigilant and continue to move forward in the right ways until we truly succeed in pushing this. thing thing down. “
There are several possible obstacles between now and reaching the immunity of the COVID-19 herd that Briesacher addressed on Friday.
One is that the spring break at many schools in Utah has also begun this weekend or is on the horizon. Briesacher advised families intending to travel during the break to focus on activities that could be “more outdoors in orientation,” such as camping in small groups.
“We’ve all seen the pictures on the beaches of Florida and I know we won’t be like that,” he said. “But there is a risk as during the Thanksgiving holiday. You saw the extraordinary response of the community to come together and really mitigate the potential results that could have come from that Thanksgiving holiday.”
The current state mandate is also due to expire on April 10 after Governor Spencer Cox signed a law passed in the legislature this week to set that date. It is worth noting that it will remain in force for schools and may remain for companies that decide to apply for masks.
Companies like Harmons, Smith and Target have all said they will keep their requirements after this date. Intermountain Healthcare also announced that it requires employees and patients to wear masks to its units even after April 10.
Briesacher said he believes April 10 is the beginning of a “personal health mandate” in which individuals can make their own decisions to wear masks and socially distance themselves in public places, when possible, to avoid the possibility of further growth. in cases.
He added that Intermountain and other public health experts will continue to monitor the situation if there is another increase in cases and as the future of COVID-19 overcomes the pandemic.