“Drier conditions in the Southwestern US associated with La Niña and the failed summer monsoon of 2020 have contributed to the development and intensification of what has been the main US spring drought since 2013,” said NOAA.
Dry weather is expected to linger in the spring, with a below average rainfall forecast in much of the west. This will likely make the drought situation worse.
One of the factors that contributed to the drought in the west is the lack of snowfall. The greatest extension of the snow drought has occurred in the Sierra Nevada, where no major storms have occurred since the strong atmospheric river in late January. As a result, almost all weather stations in the Sierra Nevada have remained below the 30th percentile of the snow water equivalent, and a few locations in the southern Sierra are even below the 10th percentile.
But what’s bad for some can be good for others in terms of snowpack as well. It is the ultimate dichotomy.
That’s because, unlike some previous years, that lack of snow melt means flooding in the plains and the Midwest will be less severe, but it also means a lack of necessary water for the western states that depend on it to undermine the drought. keep control.
The drought conditions are getting worse as we enter the peak season of the fire
Drought continues to ravage about 44% of the contiguous US, mostly in the western states, and the spring outlook expects the drought to continue.
Currently, the most severe drought conditions are in the western US, with 20% of the region in exceptional drought. This is the worst category on the National Drought Mitigation Center scale. Nearly 90% of the total region is at least abnormally dry, and these drought conditions can get worse.
Going into summer with dry conditions is also worrisome as the wildfire season starts to ramp up.
“With warmer spring temperatures and the deeper drought, the fire season could start earlier in some places and be more severe this year,” said Chad Myers, CNN Meteorologist.
The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) – a division of NOAA – is breaking down crops and livestock affected by drought. As of this week, more than 150 million acres of crops in the US are in drought. The effects of the drought on agriculture may be related to higher prices due to crop losses.
A drought could set in in other parts of the US: “Warmer than average temperatures this spring and low soil moisture levels allow drought conditions to develop and spread in the southern and central Great Plains and southern Florida,” NOAA said.
Meanwhile, a wetter-than-normal spring is forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Ocean. Some areas in this part of the country are currently experiencing dry conditions and in some cases moderate drought, but that will give way to a wet spring in the Northeast.
NOAA expects any drought in the Northeast to end thanks to forecast weather patterns this spring.
There is a positive side, but not for everyone
However, drought isn’t always about rain. Snowpack is again a factor.
“In the West, a winter snowpack can be more effective at relieving drought than summer thunderstorms. The snowpack melts slowly and doesn’t just run off the parched ground,” says Myers.
As of this week, nearly 70% of the western contiguous US weather stations are below the median for the equivalent of snow water.
The lack of strong storms in the Sierra Nevada put states like California, Nevada and Arizona at a huge disadvantage as they entered the dry season – summer.
While snow droughts may be low in the upper reaches of the Colorado River, they have been improving along the Colorado and Wyoming Front Range since the beginning of the month.
While that particular basin saw enough wave to reach near-average levels, “forecasts for water supply still remain below average,” says the West Gulf River Forecast Center.
“There is a reduced risk of flooding for most of the Greater Mississippi River Basins, Red River of the North and Souris Basins, mainly due to abnormally dry conditions, persistent drought and a lack of snowpack and associated water equivalent.”
Even compared to last year, the flood threat is lower for much of the Midwest and Plains regions, which is welcome news for people in those parts of the country. Flood threats have increased in much of the Mississippi and Missouri river basins over the past two years, so the drier conditions predicted this year are actually considered a positive when compared to what is happening with the western US states.
Spring can feel more like summer
Temperatures in April, May and June this spring are expected to be warmer than normal for most of the country.
NOAA predicts that the entire contiguous US will experience above-average temperatures, with the exception of the northwest. Western Washington is expected to feel below average temperatures, while the rest of the region has an equal chance of above, below, or near normal conditions.
The greatest chance of above-average temperatures is in the interior of the Southwest, which is also faced with exceptional drought.