South Korea’s population is falling for the first time, probably worsened by Covid-19

The leading population decline is the low number of births in South Korea. Births have dropped to record levels each year since 2016. The average number of children a woman will bring into her life in South Korea was 1.1 last year, the lowest fertility rate in the world, according to a survey of the United Nations National Population Fund, with 200 countries.

Statistics Korea, South Korea’s statistical arm, initially predicted that the country’s population would decline in 2021 after taking into account other population change factors, such as immigration.

But the pandemic, which has forced jobs and forced couples to delay marriages, is likely to have affected the birth rate, especially in South Korea, where most childbirths take place after marriage, said Choi Seong-soo, a teacher. sociology at Yonsei University in Seoul.

“It is too early to see that these factors have an impact on the birth rate now,” Mr Choi said. “But we expect to see the effects in 2021 and 2022.”

A Bank of Korea report released in December said the Covid-19 shock could have a permanent impact on the country’s birth rate, as delays in child maternity turn into permanent child abandonment decisions.

South Korea recorded 275,815 births and 307,764 deaths in 2020, according to the Ministry of Interior and Security. The country, which has maintained relatively stable outbreaks, has reported 981 deaths related to Covid-19.

With fewer newborns, South Korea is expected to have the world’s largest proportion of people aged 65 and over by 2045, according to Korea Statistics, surpassing Japan, now one of the oldest nations. from the world.

Japan made the preschool free and asked companies to let employees leave on time. But after a slight upheaval in the last decade, the birth rate has fallen in each of the last four years.

The aging population of South Korea is expected to hinder the country’s growth as its working age population declines. One study estimates that South Korea’s potential production capacity will decrease by about one percentage point starting in 2024 due to demographic change.

The pandemic has highlighted South Korea’s growing dependence on low-income immigrant workers, especially in agriculture and the basic production sectors, after air travel closures abruptly closed the doors of many temporary workers. Political decision-makers have begun to look at immigration in response to changing population dynamics, with a focus on bringing skilled foreign workers into the country.

Government officials estimate that immigrants and temporary foreign residents will account for 6.9% of the total population by 2040, up from 4.3% last year.

The government has invested tens of billions of dollars to raise the troubled birth rate, which has been a priority policy for many South Korean leaders, including President Moon Jae-in.

In some smaller rural towns outside the Seoul metropolitan area, local governments distributed cash to households with more children. A city is considering offering a home purchase scholarship of about $ 47,000 for families with three or more children. The country’s competitive lottery for the purchase of new apartment properties – a point-based, randomly drawn system – is heavily distorted to benefit households with more children.

The efforts did not change much. Meanwhile, many young women have been delayed by the government’s diagnosis of sliding birth rates. In 2017, a study conducted by a government-affiliated research agency highlighted the high academic and professional achievements of women as the cause of declining birth rates.

Although South Korea’s aging crisis is not unique, demographers say its pace is unprecedented. About 14% of South Koreans are currently elderly. This is below the average of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, according to the latest data of the group in 2018, about half of Japan and below the 20% range observed in some parts of Europe.

But in two decades, the elderly in South Korea will exceed 40 percent of the total population, said Lee Sam-sik, director of the Institute for Aging Societies at Hanyang University in Seoul.

“It’s a huge leap forward among the elderly in a very short period of time,” said Mr Lee.

—Peter Landers of Tokyo contributed to this article.

Write to Eun-Young Jeong to [email protected]