Credit: Jacob Norlund via Flickr
Mother Nature has been in a rare mood this week, giving consistent hints about her assault course and how much snow she could deliver on Saturday in southern Minnesota. In fact, we’re talking four or five days in a row with no major changes to the forecast, which seems like a rarity these days.
Now the question is whether the forecast will be correct when the snow has finished falling.
How many can minnesotans expect? The National Weather Service continues to forecast the highest amounts – 4-7 inches of fluffy snow – falling along the Minnesota River Valley in an area between Redwood Falls and Mankato, with up to 7 inches also possible south of Mankato along the Interstate 90 corridor.
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The official forecast for the Twin Cities is 3-5 inches, although only 2-4 inches is forecast for northern suburbs.
Credit: NWS Twin Cities
The snow is expected to migrate to southwestern Minnesota at 8 a.m. and make its way east, reaching the Twin Cities metro area by early afternoon. The snow should be completely gone by the time most people wake up on Sunday morning.
Credit: NWS Twin Cities
Here’s a look at the simulated future radar of the HRRR model, which shows the darker shades of blue (indicating heavier snow) in southern Minnesota.
Winds won’t be a big deal, so blowing and drifting isn’t a big deal with this storm, but the weather service does believe roads will be covered in snow, leading to dangerous travel conditions. Here’s a look at the winter storm severity index, which shows moderate travel difficulties in the Twin Cities and where the higher snow totals are predicted in southern Minnesota.
Credit: NWS Twin Cities
We’ve talked a lot about snow: fluid ratios this week, and the National Weather Service’s Twin Cities office says the forecasts are primarily based on a 15: 1 ratio, which means there could be 15 inches of snow for every inch of fluid .
This storm is not expected to dump an inch of liquid, but will instead release somewhere between 0.20 inches and 0.50 inches, with the greater amounts (0.40 inches) along the Minnesota River Valley and in south-central Minnesota. Half an inch of liquid in a 15: 1 ratio would drop 7.5 inches of snow, while a half inch of liquid in an 18: 1 ratio would drop 9 inches.
Here’s how much liquid the latest HRRR model projects, which, if accurate, would place between 3-5 inches of snow most of the metro, just as the weather service predicts. Calculate for your area by multiplying the decimal numbers below by 15. (Example: 0.4 times 15 is 6 inches of snow.)
Credit: Crucial again