The severe weather-threatened area stretches from southeastern Texas through the Florida Panhandle on the Gulf Coast to lower Michigan. The greatest threat will be in parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, which the National Weather Service Storm Forecast Center (SPC) has rated a level 4 out of 5, or “moderate risk.” This includes Jackson, Mississippi and Monroe, Louisiana.
“Significant severe storms, including widespread damaging winds, and at least a few tornadoes are expected across parts of northeast Louisiana into Mississippi, especially overnight,” said the SPC.
The SPC also warns that some areas, especially those in the region labeled as “moderate risk”, may experience hurricane-force winds, which are wind speeds of at least 120 km / h.
The nighttime hours will be the most worrying for these dangerous storms, but the threat will start earlier in the day.
During the day on Friday, there will be showers and thunderstorms in the southeast, some of which may become severe. Heavy storm warnings have already been issued for some storms on Friday morning. The main threats from these storms are hail and wind.
In the early afternoon, storm activity will increase in the main area we look forward to for severe weather. This is eastern Oklahoma, northeast Texas, northern Louisiana, and much of Arkansas.
The SPC expects multiple storm lines to form in this region, so while there may be storms as early as Friday afternoon, the serious risk will persist well into Friday evening.
On Friday evening, scattered storms are also expected to form further east in Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee, and unfortunately, the worst storms could happen after sunset.
“While tornadoes are possible, it looks like straight-line winds will be the main concern,” said the National Weather Service’s office in Jackson, Mississippi. “That said, there can be parts of wind damage that resemble EF-0 to EF-1 type (tornado) damage, so people should definitely take the wind threat seriously.”
The rest of the south could also face several rounds of strong storms. The weather doesn’t clear until early Saturday morning west of the Mississippi River, while the sites east of the river will likely still be stormy.
The threat shifts east on Saturday
The storm system triggering this expected outbreak of severe weather will continue to move east, forcing thunderstorms to move east as well.
The severe weather threat will shift more towards the southeast on Saturday. With many severe weather events, the strong storms usually occur late in the day, but we could see persistent impending storms from Friday evening to Saturday.
Saturday is the area most at risk for severe weather, from the Gulf Coast to the northern parts of Alabama and Georgia. This includes cities such as Atlanta, New Orleans, Birmingham and Mobile.
Tornadoes remain possible, especially off the Gulf Coast. The storms at this point in time are likely to have evolved more into a series of storms rather than the multiple lines and supercell thunderstorms that are the discrete twisting storms expected Friday through Friday nights.
Saturday night, the serious threat will begin to diminish. Since the storms are near the east coast in Georgia and the Carolinas, they can dissipate as the showers move toward central Florida.
Rounds of storms can cause flash flooding
This storm system will draw a lot of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, causing heavy rainfall from Friday to Saturday thunderstorms.
In some areas, particularly around the Mississippi, these severe storms are multiple times expected to occur, posing the risk of multiple hours of rainfall exceeding 2 inches per hour.
The amount of rainfall will be variable as it depends on the track of the thunderstorms, but generally 1 to 2 inches of rain is forecast for much of the south. The most likely areas to see totals between two and three inches are Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
There will be a period of drier weather in this region on Sunday, but the next chance of rain will probably come on Tuesday.