Secret roadmap for India-Pakistan peace mediated by the best kings in the United Arab Emirates

Photographer: Aamir Qureshi / AFP / Getty Images

About 24 hours after military leaders in India and Pakistan surprised the world last month with a rare joint pledge to abide by a 2003 ceasefire agreement, the top UAE diplomat came to New Delhi for a visit. fast one day.

Official UAE Reading the February 26 meeting provided some clues as to what Sheikh Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed had said to his Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, noting that “they discussed all regional and international issues of common interest and exchanged views on them.”

However, behind closed doors, the India-Pakistan ceasefire marked an important milestone in the UAE’s secret talks, which began a few months earlier, according to situation-conscious officials who asked not to be identified. The ceasefire, someone said, is just the beginning of a bigger one Roadmap to forge a lasting peace between neighbors, both with nuclear weapons and regularly exempting over a decades-long territorial dispute.

The next step in the process, the official said, involves both sides restoring envoys from New Delhi and Islamabad, who were fired in 2019 after Pakistan protested India’s bid to revoke seven decades of autonomy for the disputed Muslim-majority state. Jammu and Kashmir. Then comes the hard part: talks on resuming trade and a lasting resolution on Kashmir, the subject of three wars since India and Pakistan became independent from Britain in 1947.

Over the years, India and Pakistan have routinely made peace overtures just to make them fall apart quickly, especially since both sides frequently use the issue to provoke emotions during elections. Officials said expectations were low that the current detention would reach far beyond the return of envoys and the resumption of trade across their land border in Punjab.

But this process seems to be the most concerted effort in recent years and comes as the Biden administration seeks broader peace talks on Afghanistan – a place where both countries have been fighting for influence for years. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to support growth and concentrate military resources on the border with China, while Pakistani leaders are also facing economic problems and looking to make a good impression with the US and other powers.

Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry did not comment on the talks or the role of the UAE, while the Indian and UAE foreign ministries had no immediate comment.

Last week, Pakistani Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa he called on India to “bury the past and move forward” while saying the military was ready to enter into talks to resolve “all our outstanding issues”. The comments came a day after Prime Minister Imran Khan called for a resolution on Kashmir, which he described as “the only issue that holds us back”.

On Saturday, Modi sent a tweet wishing Khan well after being diagnosed with Covid-19 – another sign that relations between the countries are heating up.

The UAE, which has historic trade and diplomatic ties with India and Pakistan, has taken on a more affirmative international role under de facto Sheikh leader Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The biggest change has taken place in the Middle East, where the Arab Gulf state has intervened in conflicts and supported regional groups and leaders. But it has also looked to Asia, as it strengthens political alliances beyond its role as a global trading and logistics hub.

India-Pakistan ties were effectively severed two years ago after an Indian-controlled suicide attack in Kashmir killed 40 Indian soldiers, prompting the Modi government to authorize airstrikes on alleged terrorist facilities in Pakistan. A joint statement last month said the two sides “agreed to address each other’s key issues”, signaling a broader discussion on Kashmir and terrorism.

Several clues in recent months have indicated the role of the UAE. In November, Jaishankar met bin Zayed and the Crown Prince on a two-day visit to Abu Dhabi, followed the following month by Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi. About two weeks before the February 25 announcement, the UAE foreign minister held a phone call with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan “in which they discussed regional and international issues of interest.” And just days earlier, India had allowed Khan’s aircraft to fly over Indian airspace as it headed for Sri Lanka for a state visit – a practice suspended from hostilities in 2019.

After the ceasefire, the United Arab Emirates was one of several countries that issued a a statement welcoming the ceasefire announcement, highlighting its “close historical ties” with both India and Pakistan and welcoming “the efforts of both countries to reach this agreement”. In Washington, State Department spokesman Ned Price avoided questioning the role of the United States in bringing the two sides together, while urging Pakistan to play a constructive role in Afghanistan, Kashmir and elsewhere.

“Obviously, Pakistan has an important role to play when it comes to Afghanistan and what is happening across the border,” Price said on February 25. “So, of course, we will be very careful.”

– With the assistance of Sylvia Westall and Faseeh Mangi