British Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a disturbing noise ad on Friday about B 1.1.7, the coronavirus variant first found in the UK last fall, which has become widespread in the country and elsewhere. According to data recently analyzed by scientists in the UK, B 1.1.7 is not only more transmissible than previous strains, but may also be more likely to cause death. Although these conclusions are still preliminary, they seem to be taken seriously.
The announcement was based on data assessed by the UK’s new and emerging respiratory virus threat advisory group or NERVTAG, an independent group of scientists that has helped shape the country’s pandemic response. In December last year, their work studied B 1.1.7 solidified the consensus that the variant was more transmissible than the previously circulating strains. Initially, their analysis did not find any evidence that B 1.1.7 causes more serious diseases or deaths in the population than before. But that is no longer the case.
According to their new work freed On Friday, there are now several independent analyzes of case data collected in recent weeks indicating the same trend – an increase in the number of people dying from B 1.1.7 compared to people infected with other strains of the virus. Although the exact number differs between groups, they suggest that B 1.1.7 is about 30% more likely to cause death than previous strains. Note that, While a 30% increase seems huge, the overall mortality rate would still be somewhere 1%.
“This is, of course, quite worrying, given the speed with which this variant has overtaken circulating strains in different regions and our inability to control general transmission in many parts of the world.” Jason Kindrachuk, a virologist at the University of Manitoba in Canada who was not involved in the new research, told Gizmodo in an email.
As the the authors of the new work emphasizes, there is limitations of their findings. The data that scientists in the UK use to study coronavirus only covers a small part of the total number of cases and deaths in the country on a given day. Some data sources, such as inpatient outcomes, also require more time to collect than others. This may explain why hospitalization data do not appear to specifically show that B.1.1.7 is more deadly – the data may not be up to date enough to find that pattern yet. It is also possible that B.1.1.7 will introduce more people to the hospital but not necessarily changing the chances of survival of a hospitalized patient.
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one possible factor that could indirectly explain why B.1.1.7 seems more deadly– hospitals being overwhelmed by several cases caused by a more transmissible variant – it does not seem to play a major role. An analysis by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine explained “pressure covariates in the hospital”, such as the number of hospital beds available to patients on fan but they found no substantial change in their conclusions. The increase in death rates has been consistent across different age groups, also further suggesting a higher real risk of mortality only from B.1.1.7.
Sthe eternal countries are now concerned about the emergence of B.1.1.7 and others, similar variants. If B.1.1.7 will take place outside the United Kingdom, as some experts have warned, would certainly threaten to untie us Recently decline in the cases and hospitalizations recently seen in some countries.
“My immediate thoughts, Of course, went to the level of this disease onlong-term care residents in Canada and what this option could mean for an already precarious situation, ”said Kindrachuk. Canada, like the United States, is recent experiencing a decrease in cases and hospitalizations. But outbreaks of variants similar to B 1.1.7 have already been found in local nursing homes.
More needs to be done to confirm these findings. But whatever the conclusions, it remains absolutely essential that we do everything we can to reduce the spread of the pandemic as quickly as possible. as much as possible – including wearing masks, avoiding socializing indoors when possible, aYou will be vaccinated when you become eligible.