Scientists say that turning Israel from a COVID-19 hot spot into a vaccination success story underscores the fact that any developed country can transmit the virus.
They estimate that a relatively small number of vaccinations are needed to get a country out of crisis. When half of the population over the age of 60 is inoculated, the authorities can expect a dramatic drop in cases, and hospitals are safe from being overwhelmed, they conclude.
The allegations come from the authors of a detailed report, published as an article evaluated by colleagues in the journal Cell Reports Medicine, on how serious a COVID situation Israel faced in the first weeks of the vaccination campaign, especially as new the variant was angry.
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“Israel is facing a number of factors that have made the situation here particularly difficult, and if it succeeds despite all this and we could achieve a rapid decline in cases, then any developed country can do it,” said Prof. Dan Yamin from Tel Aviv University. said The Times of Israel.
An Israeli receives a COVID-19 shot at a vaccination center in Jerusalem on March 11, 2021. (Yonatan Sindel / Flash90)
He said most other Western countries are in a better position as they commit or prepare to engage in their vaccination programs and therefore can have great confidence when they see infection, hospitalization and rates of death of Israel.
His data suggests that vaccines quickly saved “hundreds of lives” in Israel, and his statistical analysis shows that the health service was quickly protected from melting as a critical mass of more than 60 vaccines received.
Prof. Dan Yamin from Tel Aviv University (Moshe Baderashi)
“The message to the world, especially to European countries, the US and developed countries in Asia, is that if you reach 50% coverage among adults over 60, you will see a dramatic drop in severe cases and you can be sure that you will avoid hospitals being overwhelmed, “he said.
Yamin believes that vaccines can and should reach countries beyond the developed world, but limited his comments to Western countries because others do not have the infrastructure to distribute and administer vaccines that would make a comparison with Israel relevant.
The study, reported by The Times of Israel in February before being evaluated by colleagues, is based on data from about 300,000 coronavirus tests performed by health authorities. The data from these tests provided a clear picture of how, just as the momentum for vaccination increased, the British extra-infectious variant spread rapidly to Israel.
The research found that it was 45 percent more transmissible than the usual coronavirus in Israel and that in just two months after first arriving in the country, it accounted for 95% of coronavirus cases – which is thought to be higher than in most countries except the United Kingdom.
Yamin, head of Tel Aviv University’s Epidemic Modeling and Analysis Laboratory, noted that in addition to facing the dangers of this variant, Israel is among the nations with the highest levels of new infections as vaccination has begun.
“Apart from the fact that it is facing an extra-transmissive variant, Israel is an extremely transmissive environment,” he said. This is because there are densely concentrated housing, large young populations where asymptomatic infections are common and “silent epidemics” are possible and due to the large size of households.
“When you remember that the biggest infection takes place in households, the challenges facing Israel are clearer.”
A health worker takes Israeli coronavirus test samples from a complex in northern Israel on March 4, 2021. (David Cohen / Flash90)
He said vaccines in Israel quickly overcame the country’s many challenges and prevented the British version from establishing itself among the vulnerable age group over 60, which was already vaccinated upon its arrival.
The research of Yamin, co-author with Prof. Ariel Munitz and Prof. Moti Gerlitz, of the Department of Clinical Microbiology and Immunology at Tel Aviv University’s Sackler School of Medicine, indicates that while the British version has spread rapidly among those under 60 in January, in fact, it began to decline among the elderly until the middle of the month.
If it had been a crossroads among those over 60, it could have accelerated the pandemic in the age group most likely to respond poorly to the virus.
New research encourages Western countries that as they vaccinate, “their infection curve will break,” Yamin said.
