LONDON (AP) – There is some evidence that a new variant of coronavirus first identified in the south-east of England has a higher risk of death than the original strain, the British government’s chief adviser said on Friday – although he stressed that the data were uncertain
Patrick Vallance told a news conference that “there is evidence that there is an increased risk for those who have the new option.”
He said that for a 60-year-old man with the original version of the virus, “the average risk is that for every 1,000 people who become infected, about 10 are expected to die unfortunately.”
“With the new variant, for 1,000 infected people, one would expect about 13 or 14 people to die,” he said.
But Vallance stressed that “the evidence is not yet strong” and that more research is needed.
Contrary to this uncertainty, he said, there is growing confidence that the variant is more easily transmitted than the original coronavirus strain. He said it appears to be 30% and 70% more transmissible.
Maria Van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization’s technical leader on COVID-19, said studies are underway to analyze the transmission and severity of new virus variants.
She has said so far that “they have not seen an increase in severity”, but that a higher transmission could lead to “an overloaded health care system” and thus more deaths.
The evidence for the new variant being more lethal is a paper prepared by a group of scientists who advise the government on the new respiratory virus, based on several studies.
British scientists said that although initial tests suggested that the strain, first identified in September, did not cause more severe disease, several more recent ones suggest it could. However, the number of deaths is relatively small and mortality rates are affected by many things, including patient care, age and health beyond having COVID-19.
British scientists point out that the information so far has major limitations and that they do not know how representative the cases included in the analyzes of what is happening in the whole country or elsewhere.
An analysis did not find an increased risk of death among people hospitalized in a hospital with the new strain. In another, the chances of being admitted to a hospital with the new strain compared to the previous dominant one were not different.
There is a gap in reporting hospitalizations after infection and an additional gap from infection to death, so officials expect to know more in a few weeks.
Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said that “there is a fairly large difference in the estimated increased risk of death between the various tests, although most, but not all, have an increased risk of death,” he said. . .
Ian Jones, a professor of virology at the University of Reading, said: “The data is limited and the conclusions are preliminary. However, an increased fatality rate of cases is certainly possible with a virus that has improved its game in transmission. ”
British officials say they are confident that vaccines that have been authorized for use against COVID-19 will be effective against the new strain identified in the country.
But Vallance said scientists are concerned that variants identified in Brazil and South Africa could be more resistant to vaccines, adding that more research is needed.
Concerns about the newly identified variants have triggered a number of new travel restrictions around the world. Many countries have closed their borders to travel from the UK, and the UK has stopped flights from Brazil and South Africa.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said there could be additional restrictions.
“We may have to go further to protect our borders,” he said.
The United Kingdom recorded 95,981 deaths among people who tested positive for coronavirus, the highest confirmed total in Europe.
The UK is currently in a deadlock trying to slow the latest outbreak of the coronavirus outbreak. Bars, restaurants, entertainment venues and many shops are closed, and people have to stay mostly at home.
The number of new infections has begun to decline, but deaths remain agonizingly high, averaging more than 1,000 a day, and the number of hospitalized patients is 80% higher than at the peak of the spring pandemic.
Johnson, who was often accused of making overly optimistic predictions about easing coronavirus restrictions, seemed grim.
“We will have to live with coronavirus in one way or another for a long time,” he said, adding that “it is an open question” when measures could be eased.
“At this stage you have to be very, very careful,” he said.
Vallance agreed,
“I don’t think this virus is going anywhere,” he said. “It will probably be around forever.”
___ AP Chief Medical Writer Marilynn Marchione and Medical Writer Maria Cheng contributed to this story.
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