Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Gulf countries are expected to sign an agreement on Tuesday to end a diplomatic crisis in the Gulf after three and a half years.
The whole picture: A Saudi-led coalition severed ties with Qatar in 2017 and closed its airspace and sea routes to Qatar’s planes and ships, citing Qatar’s alleged support for terrorist groups and relations with Iran. In recent weeks, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have come under pressure from the Trump administration to end the dispute.
- The United States maintains close ties with both Qatar and its rivals, but the Trump administration’s past attempts to reconcile the parties have failed.
- Both Gulf countries see signing the agreement as a gesture to the Trump administration and part of their effort to “clean up the table” to prepare for the new Biden administration.
- Jared Kushner mediated between the parties and traveled to Saudi Arabia to attend the signing during this week’s Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit.
The most recent: Prior to the signing of the agreement, the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister announced that Saudi Arabia and Qatar will open their land, air and sea borders starting Monday evening.
News management: Kushner traveled to the GCC summit in Al Ula, Saudi Arabia, with White House envoy Avi Berkowitz and adviser Brian Hook, who helped negotiate the deal.
- The summit will be the first time the Emir of Qatar, Tamim Bin Hamad al-Thani, will visit Saudi Arabia since the outbreak of the crisis in 2017. Leaders from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Kuwait will also participate.
- Leaders will sign an agreement that includes three confidence-building measures: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain will lift Qatar’s air and sea blockade; Qatar will withdraw all lawsuits against the three Gulf neighbors; and all parties will stop their media campaigns against each other.
Behind the scenes: The agreement was reached in principle during Kushner’s last visit to Saudi Arabia and Qatar a few weeks ago, where he met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Sheikh Tamim. Kushner has close ties to both leaders.
- US officials say that after meeting with the Crown Prince, Kushner traveled to Doha, the capital of Qatar, with Hook, leaving behind close associates Berkowitz and Adam Boehler in Saudi Arabia. The two talks mediated over the phone between Saudis and Qataris in real time, until the conclusion of a draft agreement.
- Over the past few weeks, there have been final talks with the Saudis and Qataris to ensure that both sides are committed to the agreements that have been reached, officials told me.
- The White House has also put pressure on the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt – all three with reservations about the agreement, as they look at Qatar in a negative light and do not think Qataris are sincere.
- The deal almost fell apart on Sunday, when a last-minute misdirection created new tensions between the Saudis and Qataris, informed sources told me.
- Kushner and his team were scheduled to leave on Sunday afternoon, but postponed their trip. A source told me that Kushner and his team had to negotiate with the Saudis and Qataris on Sunday night until a solution was found. They left Washington on their way to Saudi Arabia early Monday morning.
What are they saying: A senior diplomat from one of the Gulf countries told me that the agreement is a step in the right direction and includes some positive developments – but it does not mark the end of the Gulf rupture.
- “Some of the issues have been resolved, but the root causes of the rupture – poor personal relations between leaders and major policy differences in Iran, Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood – are still there,” the diplomat told me.
Bottom line: The agreement, which will be signed on Tuesday, would be a last-minute achievement for Kushner and the Trump administration before President-elect Joe Biden takes office on January 20th.