Satellite images show Ukraine’s expanding accumulation of Russia

Other Russian military units in the Crimean peninsula include air troops, motorized rifles and armored units, attack helicopters, smoke generators, reconnaissance drones, jamming equipment and a military hospital, the photos show.

These forces and the stationing of Su-34, Su-30, Su-27, Su-25 and Su-24 aircraft elsewhere in the region, which are also described in the photos, have strengthened Moscow’s political leverage to force Ukraine. , current and say former officials.

“They have properly deployed the various elements of air power that would be needed to establish air superiority over the battlefield and to directly support ground troops,” said Philip Breedlove, a U.S. Air Force general who served as NATO’s top military commander when Russian forces seized Crimea and intervened in eastern Ukraine in 2014.

Gender. Breedlove said the photos indicated that Russian units were not ready to strike immediately, but said Moscow had more options for military action.

The director of the Central Intelligence Agency, William Burns, last week provided a similar assessment to Congress, noting that Russian developments could be intended to intimidate the Ukrainian government and send a message to the Biden administration.

“The accumulation has reached the point where, you know, it could also provide the basis for a limited military incursion,” Mr. Burns told the Senate Intelligence Committee. “So it’s something that not only the United States, but our allies need to take very seriously.”

Biden administration officials have prepared options to provide lethal and non-lethal military aid to Ukraine in the event of a Russian attack. Options include anti-tank, anti-sand and anti-aircraft systems, according to a person familiar with the deliberations, although they have not yet been presented to President Biden for a decision. The administration is considering even more economic sanctions against Russia, administration officials say.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said last week that the country was conducting exercises in response to actions by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization that “threatened Russia” and accused the Ukrainian authorities of trying to stir up tensions.

The satellite photos were taken between March 27 and April 16 by Maxar Technologies,

a satellite and imaging trading company that offers extensive images of the United States and other Western governments. Dan Jablonsky, the company’s chief executive, said he was releasing the unclassified photos because of his commitment to transparency, but was not asked by the US government.

“I think it removes some of the uncertainty and doubt about what is really going on in a fairly critical region of the world,” Mr Jablonsky said.

US officials estimate that there are currently as many as 80,000 Russians in Crimea and near Ukraine. This is almost double the Russian force deployed there about four weeks ago, officials said. The head of the European Union’s foreign policy, Josep Borrell, raised the number to over 100,000, which he said would make it greater than the force the Russians deployed when they seized Crimea in 2014 and sent troops to the east. Ukraine.

According to a US military official, the Russian force currently includes 48 battalion tactical groups, which consist of several hundred soldiers and officers each. However, the US secret services have not yet identified all the logistical capabilities and support units that would be generally used for a significant cross-border assault in Ukraine, including ammunition depots and deployed hospitals, the official said.

The Su-34 planes from the Morozovsk base in eastern Ukraine have been moved on the flight line, satellite photos show, a step that indicates a greater state of readiness.

“It simply came to our notice then. It is the preparation for a major offensive, “said Phillip Karber, president of the Potomac Foundation, an American think tank that has traveled extensively on the Ukrainian military front. “I do not predict an attack, but in two weeks it will be an option at the discretion of the Russians.”

Other experts say Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to pressure Ukraine to resume water supplies to Crimea, which Kiev authorities cut off after the Kremlin annexed the peninsula.

“We cannot rule out that this accumulation is possibly a coercive tool used by Putin to force Ukraine to open the water channel in Northern Crimea,” said Glen Howard, president of the Jamestown Foundation, a conservative research center. “It is a massive amount of military capability and we do not know in which direction the Russians will go.”

In Ukraine, the build-up of Russian troops has left many guessing about Putin’s intentions for seven years in a conflict that has claimed more than 14,000 lives.

“In a few weeks, they will be close to a sufficient preparation for battle to continue a military escalation. According to our estimates, their combined military force will reach more than 120,000 troops by then, “Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told the newspaper in written comments.” We do not know if Putin will decide to attack, but he will certainly be ready. to do it”.

Oleg Zhdanov, a reserve colonel in the Ukrainian army and a military analyst, said that the fact that much of the accumulation took place outdoors and was captured on social networks was a sign that Moscow’s main goal was political. “Putin is using it to provoke a wave of panic,” Zhdanov said.

The situation can be somewhat fluid. Satellite photos show that a squadron of ground-based Frogfoot Su-25 aircraft and several electronic warplanes that were seen in Maxar satellite images in mid-April at an air base in Astrakhan, Russia, departed for a another airport April 16. On Sunday, the Russian news agency TASS said that the Su-25s had arrived in Crimea.

Mr Biden, who spoke with Mr Putin last week, called on Russia to disqualify tensions with Ukraine. Mr Biden last week announced new sanctions against Moscow over electoral interference and the SolarWinds cyber attack. Moscow has denied involvement in the hack, and Russian officials have repeatedly denied involvement in US elections.

Mr Biden said he was not keen to climb, but was prepared to take strong action if necessary.

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan spoke with Russian counterpart Nikolai Patrushev on Monday. US and Russian statements about the conversation mentioned that the two officials discussed the prospects of a summit at the end of this year between Mr Biden and Mr Putin. None of the statements specifically mentioned the accumulation of Russian military in Crimea and near Ukraine.

—Gordon Lubold in Washington and James Marson in Brussels contributed to this article.

Write to Michael R. Gordon at [email protected] and Georgi Kantchev at [email protected]