Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, while speaking during his annual speech on the state of the nation in Moscow, Russia, on Wednesday, January 15, 2020.
Bloomberg
Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to address the nation on Wednesday in his annual State of the Nation Address, a speech that will take place because the country is in the news for all the wrong reasons.
In the last week, there have been other reports that Russian troops are massing on the border with Ukraine, possibly preparing for military action.
And Putin’s critic, Alexei Navalny, who was on hunger strike in a Russian prison, became seriously ill and was taken to a prison hospital. The news prompted US warnings that there would be “consequences” if Russia allowed Navalny to die in prison.
In addition, Russia has been accused of orchestrating an attack on a Czech weapons depot in 2014, with the Czech Republic expelling 18 Russian diplomats as a result of this week. Russia denies that two of its military intelligence agents – the same men believed to have carried out a nerve attack on a former British spy in 2018 – carried out the Czech attack, but the news added to the news. negative around the country.
Last week, the United States imposed several sanctions on Russia for its 2020 electoral interference, a cyber attack on US government and corporate networks, the annexation and occupation of Ukraine’s Crimea, and human rights abuses.
It is uncertain whether Putin will address such recent events in his annual speech on Wednesday. Although, as Daragh McDowell, Europe’s head and Russia’s chief analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, remarked on Tuesday, the speech was often “the set piece for major political announcements.”
The address usually covers a wide range of topics, from economics and defense to education and family life. The coronavirus pandemic will also have to be on the agenda, with the virus hitting the country hard in the last year.
Russia’s foreign policy and geopolitical relations will be closely monitored by experts, especially when it comes to its neighbor Ukraine.
Ukraine
Russia’s close observers are particularly puzzled by reports that the country is massaging troops on the border with Ukraine, with the EU’s foreign minister estimating the size of 100,000 troops on Tuesday.
“Only last week did military analysts reduce the size of Russia’s deployment, but now it seems quite important,” Timothy Ash, a senior emerging market strategist at Bluebay Asset Management, said in a statement on Tuesday.
(You have to) wonder why Putin feels the need to put such great force “in the theater”, because it goes far beyond the sound of the sword. The deployment is bigger than in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and invaded the Donbas – let’s not forget that. Why bother if something serious isn’t planned? he asked.
Ash questioned what Putin’s strategic goals could be in Ukraine, a country with which Russia has had strained relations since the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
“Is this ensuring the supply of water to Crimea, (a) land bridge to Crimea or Ukrainian forces so strong that the Kiev government is calling for a peace that gives Russia lasting strategic dominance over Ukraine?” Ash asked.
Navalny
The 44-year-old activist Navalny was taken to a prison hospital this weekend because his health deteriorated during a hunger strike he organized in protest of his treatment in prison. He said he was denied urgent medical treatment, a request rejected by Russian authorities.
Navalny is in prison after a Russian court sentenced him in February to more than two years in prison for violations of conditioning, allegations he said were politically motivated.
Over the weekend, his doctor warned that Navalny was in danger of a heart attack or kidney failure. Doctors were unable to visit Navalny in prison, but said medical tests provided by Navalny’s family showed he was dangerously ill and “could die at any time.”
The US administration has warned the Russian government not to let Navalny die in custody, adding that there will be “consequences”.
Read more: US disturbed by Kremlin critics jailed over Navalny’s deteriorating health
Navalny’s team on Wednesday called for mass protests, a move likely to provoke clashes between protesters and police.
McDowell of Verisk Maplecroft noted that tensions between Russia and the West have been steadily rising since the beginning of the year, driven by both the more confrontational policy of the Biden administration and Navalny’s return.
“Navalny’s imprisonment and his rapidly deteriorating health have both galvanized Russia’s internal opposition and become an international headache for the Kremlin, with European governments pressured to take a tougher line on Moscow,” he said.