US officials are also concerned about the Kremlin ally’s long-term goals in the state of war. An intelligence official notes that the tranche is a sign that Wagner, who, the official said, has the largest global presence in Libya, “is settling in the long term.”
The ditch, which stretches tens of kilometers south of the populated coastal areas around Sirte to the Wagner-controlled fortress of al-Jufra, can be seen on satellite images and is supported by a series of elaborate fortifications.
CNN contacted the Russian government for comment and received no response.
Trenches and fortifications appear to be designed to prevent or stop a ground attack on areas controlled by the eastern LNA, which crosses the populated coastal areas of Libya, which have seen the most clashes since the fall of Moammar Gadhafi’s regime in 2011.
GNA posted images of excavators and trucks creating the ditch and berm that run alongside it, and said the work was underway as recently as this month.
The ditch, said the US intelligence official, is another reason “we do not see any intention or movement of Turkish or Russian forces to comply with the UN-mediated agreement. This has the potential to derail an already fragile peace process and stop the fire. to be a really difficult year ahead “.
Open-source monitoring says it has mapped a series of more than 30 defensive positions dug in the desert and hills that stretch for about 70 kilometers.
Satellite images from Maxar seem to show both the ditch that stretches along a main road and the excavated fortifications, also by Wagner mercenaries and their contractors.
The images show an accumulation of defenses around the Jufra air base and also the Brak airfield, further south, where the apparent radar defenses were installed and fortified.
Defense Minister GNA Salaheddin Al-Namroush told CNN: “I don’t think anyone is digging a trench today and making these reinforcements leave soon.”
Claudia Gazzini of the International Crisis Group told CNN that the tranche was “really worrying” and that talk of it had been circulating among diplomats in recent weeks. It is ongoing and would suggest that Moscow wants to cement its presence in Libya. “
Analysts said the Kremlin wants to increase its military presence and influence in the Mediterranean, along NATO’s southern zone, with the added bonus of involvement and profit from Libya’s oil industry.
Gazzini added that there have been repeated reports that both sides have continued to maintain and build a presence of foreign mercenaries, with the GNA also accused of increasing its supply of military equipment under a public agreement with Turkey to and support the armed forces.
The US intelligence official said the number of mercenaries on both sides of the GNA and LNA was relatively consistent: an estimated 10,000 are currently in Libya, according to a September AFRICOM report on the issue.
The Libyan deployment of about 2,000 Wagner foreign mercenaries – believed to be mostly Russian citizens or former Soviet citizens – is the largest private military company in the world, the US official said.
An LNA spokesman, Major General Khaled al-Mahjoub, confirmed the existence of the trenches to CNN, but described them as “temporary” sand barriers and trenches in an open area … for defense and the fight”. He denied the presence of 2,000 Wagner mercenaries and said there were consultants “announced long ago”.
However, a confidential UN report in June, obtained by CNN, described the Wagner fighters as “an effective force multiplier”.
Last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin said there were no Russians in Libya, but if there were, there was no Russia. Russia has always denied using mercenaries to fight for it.
Despite an arms embargo, UN inspectors have registered dozens of Russian flights to Libya throughout 2020.
The US command for Africa has publicly called on Russia to expand, saying it is similar to actions in Syria.
In June, the head of the defense committee in the upper house of the Russian parliament, Viktor Bondarev, said the US statement was “stupid” and suggested that it was old Soviet planes from elsewhere in Africa.
A Western diplomat with knowledge of arms movements in Libya said Russian flights in the country had dropped from their peak of 93 in August to just over a dozen a month at the end of 2020. “They are just supporting on the ground,” he said. he. he said, adding that Turkey is flying in similar numbers.
The Turkish army is open about its desire for a permanent presence, posting pictures with its army offering the GNA “Basic Defense Training” last week.
“It’s a comprehensive effort,” the US official said. “They build facilities, bring staff and equipment. They have HAWK, 3D anti-aircraft missile batteries [KALAKAN] radar.”
Satellite images of al-Khoms port show minor changes that suggest it could be prepared for a longer-term Turkish naval presence, which al-Namroush of the GNA has denied.
A senior Turkish security official told CNN that “it continues to provide military training, cooperation and advice … according to the needs and requirements of the GNA.”
Thousands of Syrian mercenaries in which Turkey flew and claimed Libya have been used elsewhere, the US intelligence official revealed. During Turkey’s support for the Azerbaijani government during their recent conflict with Armenia, the planes carried hundreds of Syrian mercenaries to Azerbaijan to help Turkey’s ally in the war with Armenia, the US official said.
“There seems to have been a movement of Syrian mercenary forces in the direction of the conflict in [Nagorno Karabakh]. Smaller numbers, in the lower hundreds, “the official added.
Russia-backed Wagner forces are destined to give Moscow influence, not responsibility, analysts said. Jalel Harchaoui, a senior member of the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, said Wagner’s mercenary forces are “by definition disposable” – and a “force that does not exist,” according to the official version of the Russian state. it means that it is not formidable, frightening and quite effective “, but that it offers the greatest flexibility for the Kremlin.
Gazzini added: “Russian policy in Libya is opaque – what Russia wants to do. From the evidence on the ground, it seems they want to strengthen their influence or find a way out.”
However, the US official added that the Russian accumulation now amounts to significant staff and advanced equipment, but which presents ethical concerns. “Fourth-generation fighter jets and Pantsir missile systems are operated by a less capable, poorly trained Wagner mercenary,” the official said.
“There are complex challenges in Libya, including Al Qaeda and ISIS, and mercenaries with a low level of training, experience and lack of respect for human rights and international law, make these weapons systems the most worrying.”
While Wagner’s presence and trench appear to convey an advantage for LNA chief general Haftar, Russia’s presence seems more geared to Moscow’s agenda than Haftar’s support, analysts said.
The Western diplomat said Haftar needed an ongoing conflict in Libya to maintain relevance. “It becomes irrelevant overnight if the conflict ends,” the diplomat said. “And if he doesn’t finish in his condition, he becomes vulnerable to war crimes charges, etc.”