- Putin ordered thousands of troops to the Russian border with Ukraine and set up a maritime blockade.
- Apparently he intends to invade.
- Or at least that’s what he does like let everyone think.
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Russian warships and attack planes have been conducting aggressive exercises off the coast of Ukraine this week, adding fears of a blockade to concerns that the movement of more than 100,000 soldiers could telegraph a Russian invasion.
In recent weeks, Russia has moved a massive amount of offensive military capabilities – ranging from elite air units to modern armored formations to planes – to military regions along Ukraine’s border, where Russian-speaking “people’s republics” have fought against Kiev for independence in 2014.
The big unanswered question: Will Putin invade Ukraine again? Or it’s just him Preparing to invade Ukraine in a show of strength to keep the world at bay?
The context is that Russia has done this before. He confiscated the former Ukrainian territory of Crimea in 2014 and in the same year lost the Donbas region to separatists backed by Russia. Ukraine and Russia have been embroiled in an armed conflict, again and again, along the border ever since. However, an invasion in the heart of Ukraine would be a significant escalation of fighting on the eastern flank of Europe.
“It is clear that he intends to make everyone believe that he is about to invade Ukraine.”
“It would not make much sense for Putin to invade Ukraine right now, but it is clearly intended to make everyone think he is about to invade Ukraine,” said a Baltic intelligence official who is closely monitoring Russian aggression. . “The units that took part in the ‘exercises’ seem to be chosen specifically for their offensive capabilities, and the amount of logistics and support that is developing behind the units is an additional concern.”
Russia has repeatedly attacked recent moves by the Ukrainian government to shut down pro-Russian television stations and sanction oligarchs considered close to Putin, saying the measures are part of a Ukrainian-US plan to crush resistance in pro-Russian republics. -Russian.
Russia announced on Monday night that it would restrict the free movement of foreign military ships in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, a statement that immediately attracted conviction from the US State Department, who warned that the move was tantamount to threatening to blockade an American ally.
“If he is convinced there is a threat, he could act.”
A Ukrainian note sent to Axios accused the Russians of restricting access to almost a quarter of the Black Sea, a clear violation of international maritime law.
The memo from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine speculates that Russian aggression could be intended as a distraction from the upcoming legislative elections or as a threat to force Ukraine to change some anti-Russian policies. But a military intelligence official based at NATO headquarters in Brussels warned of a disconnect between the West and Putin over intentions.
“Putin clearly believes that there is a conspiracy to break Russia’s influence in places like Ukraine, Georgia, Poland, etc.,” the official said. “There is always a fear that when everyone says they don’t think Putin is about to invade Ukraine – and to be fair I don’t – that there is a misreading of how he sees the situation. If he is convinced that there is a threat, could act. “