The Biden administration is considering America’s role in the ongoing conflict in Syria as the US tries to break away from the wars in the Middle East, but Vladimir Putin’s top diplomat has already been busy on the ground, trying to gain support for a Syrian approach that could establish Russia as an intermediary for security and power in the region. .
The new US administration has not yet said how it intends to manage Syria, which is now fragmented into half a dozen troops – including US troops – because of a war that has killed and displaced millions. The conflict includes al-Qaeda affiliates, Islamic State forces and other jihadist groups eager to use Syria as a base.
Russia and Iran have intervened to prevent the collapse of Syrian President Bashar Assad, which attacked chemical attacks, barrel bombs and famines to crush what had begun as a peaceful uprising. The conflict has just entered its 11th year.
The approach to the Syrian war will test the Biden administration’s determination to focus on Asia rather than the Middle East. If the United States diminishes its presence, Russia and other hostile US rivals are ready to intervene and increase their stature and regional resources.
Hence that of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov The Middle East tour this month.
Lavrov stood as Gulf Secretary of State, generally friendly with Washington, UAE, sent a message in line with Moscow’s position: US sanctions on Russia-backed Syrian regime blocked international reconstruction efforts of Syria. Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan said it was time to welcome Syria back to the land of the Arab nations.
In other words, Russia’s message is “the war in Syria is over, Assad has won, Assad will be in power as long as he breathes oxygen,” said Frederic Hof, who was Syria’s adviser and envoy to the Obama administration.
Hof said there is an undeclared part of the message: Russia intends to be at hand, because “Syria is built from ashes,” benefiting from any international reconstruction resources that come in and position itself as an intermediary to deal with security threats that Syria represents them to the region.
Hof and James F. Jeffrey, a career diplomat in the Republican and Democratic administrations who was President Donald Trump’s envoy to Syria, say the United States will remain a significant presence in the country, citing Russia’s ambitions.
“If this is the future of security in the Middle East, we all have problems,” warns Jeffrey. “That pushes Putin and Lavrov.”
The Biden administration is considering whether to consider Syria as one of the most important national security issues in America.
There is still no sign of doing so. In particular, if President Joe Biden identified a number of other issues in the Middle East as priorities – including the war in Yemen and Iran’s nuclear program, for which Biden called envoys – he and his officials said and made little public in Syria.
In Congress, Syria is at the center of a congressional debate over whether to reduce or end the authorities given to presidents to carry out military strikes following the 9/11 attacks.
The war in Syria sparked that debate when President Barack Obama first looked at military strikes there, said Rep. Joaquin Castro, a Democrat from Texas and a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “Congress has separated from some of the most important decisions a country can make.”
One of the few public remarks by Biden about Syria since taking office came last week, when he listed among the international issues that the UN Security Council should do more about.
Last week marked the 10th anniversary of the Syrian conflict, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a statement with European counterparts, stressed the need for humanitarian aid for Syrian civilians and responsibility for the Assad regime.
US troops are helping to protect an opposition enclave in northeastern Syria, in an area that includes oil and natural gas. During Biden’s campaign last year, Blinken framed the military role as a “lever” in negotiations on Syria’s international management, rather than an ongoing force.
National Security Council and State Department spokesmen declined to answer specific questions about Biden’s Syrian policy, including whether the administration sees the Syrian conflict as a major threat to national security or intends to appoint an envoy.
Biden is pursuing Obama and Trump in an attempt to downplay the US military role in the Middle East and shift the focus of US foreign policy to Asia, where China has been increasingly aggressive.
But the conflicts in the Middle East and the United States’ own strategic schemes have a way of pulling Americans back. Last month, Biden became the sixth consecutive U.S. president to bomb a Middle Eastern target, hitting an Iranian Allied militia in Syria that had attacked U.S. personnel and allies in neighboring Iraq.
Some current and former US diplomats for the Middle East have argued that Syria is not a top security threat to the United States.
Robert S. Ford, the Obama administration’s ambassador to Syria with years of diplomatic experience in the region, concluded in a foreign affairs article last year that Washington should move toward withdrawing its troops from northeastern Syria. for Russia and others to deal with jihadist fighters and put money into the United States to help war refugees.
But Hof and Jeffrey, two others who dealt with Syria for previous administrations, argue against the withdrawal.
“If I were an ISIS leader now desperately trying to organize an insurgency to return” to Syria, “I would pray for that advice to be taken,” Hof said. For the Islamic State group, “if you can have the (Syrian) regime, the Iranians and the Russians as enemies, it will not be better than that.”
A test of the Biden administration’s intentions is approaching, as Russia is trying to use the position of the UN Security Council to close a humanitarian aid route in a part of Syria that is not under the control of the Russian-backed Syrian government, notes Mona Yacoubian, senior Syrian adviser to the US Peace Institute think tank.
Maintaining or consolidating the US footprint in Syria will be important, Yacoubian said – not just as leverage in political negotiations, but also to shape the rules of the game for Russia’s presence in the Middle East. And other immediate goals for the international community remain: to make life “easier to manage and less miserable for Syrians,” she said.