A major new Trump voter poll in 2020 shows how divided they were on social security, Medicare, trade and tax cuts for the rich – while culture, religion and patriotism and the US-Mexico border were unifying issues.
News management: The YouGov poll of 1,000 voters, conducted last month and revised by Axios, informs a forum on Friday about the future GOP hosted by the American Institute of Enterprise and the Center for Ethics and Public Policy. It captures the thinking of this strong basic slice, not only after the election, but also after January. 6.
- “The Republican challenge to Trump is how to rely on the conservative populist alliance, not throw out the populist side, “said EPPC senior colleague Henry Olsen, who led the study.
By numbers: Asked to respond to a statement once considered orthodox by the Republican Party – “Reducing the tax rate paid by the richest Americans helps increase economic growth for all of us” – 46% said they disagree.
- One-third questioned whether reducing taxes on large corporations would help boost economic growth for everyone.
- 60% said foreign trade helps the US economy, while 40% said it hurts.
- 40% said foreign trade creates more jobs for Americans, while 60% said it reduces the number of jobs for Americans.
- 55% said controlling the cost of Medicare to taxpayers is more important, but 45% said it is more important to make sure older people get the health care they need, no matter the cost.
- 63% said it is more important to keep social security benefits at current levels, even if it means raising payroll taxes, but 37% agreed to keep payroll tax, even if it means reducing benefits for future retirees .
But, but, but: Nearly nine in 10 supported the construction of a US-Mexico border wall, supported US employers certifying workers’ citizenship, were concerned about rising anti-white discrimination, and said the Christian faith is essential to American but attacked greatness.
Between the lines: There is a real division within the Trump coalition about the future of the GOP.
- 66% said there were more supporters of former President Trump than the Republican Party.
- 37% said the party was on the wrong track.
- 40% said Republicans care more about helping people make more money than helping people live a decent life.
- 54% said they would definitely support Trump in 2024 if he ran again.
What are they saying: “The Trump coalition is fundamentally different” from pre-Trump Republicans and Republican-leaning voters, Olsen told Axios.
- “Once we move away from the economy, patriotism, culture, religious issues, it is really a clear supermajority and that unites the coalition … There is no way a modern democratic coalition can jump into that conversation in these terms. . “
- “But the economy certainly divides the Trump coalition … All the things that defined economic thinking before Trump are now a complete division.” The shift to conservative economic ideas could be “like opening a door for Democrats to pass.”
- The Republican challenge is “they must cement the Trump coalition outside of Trump’s personality.”
Methodology: This survey of 1,000 Trump 2020 voters was conducted between January 11-14, 2021, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5%
- YouGov interviewed 1,069 Trump voters, which equated to a sample of 1,000 to produce the final data set based on the characteristics of Trump voters in the 2020 Cooperative Congress Election Study. Appropriate data were weighted by age, sex, race, and education using the weighting score.