Dr. Michele Carbone, of the University of Hawaii Cancer Center and the Department of Pathology, and an international team of colleagues recently wrote an article – a sort of research summary – for the Journal of Thoracic Oncology that provides reliable, easy-to-read information. understood about COVID-19, which are both important and not easy to see in the circus atmosphere of our media.
Here are some important points:
First the correct terminology: the name of the new coronavirus is “SARS-CoV-2” and it causes a disease called “COVID-19” in about 30% of infected people.
Masks and social distance help prevent infection, but the only way to be sure you won’t get the virus is to stay home and have no visitors. It’s that simple.
But this would require us to sacrifice our normal life routines, such as spending time with friends and family, going to restaurants and malls, doing our work in a social setting with colleagues – the things that define us. life.
Deserve? How to manage risk?
Infections occur almost exclusively indoors
The virus floats in the air as an aerosol. Open the windows and the risk of infection decreases drastically, according to Carbone and his colleagues.
The more crowded the environment, the greater the risk of infection – for example, the risk is very high in a crowded, air-conditioned bus with closed windows. However, the crowded environment of a modern aircraft is relatively safer, they say – because the air in the cabin is filtered and is completely replaced with outside air every 2 to 3 minutes.
Because we gather indoors with windows closed in the cold winter months, the risk of infection is higher and more likely then.
Unintended consequences
We are currently turning our attention and resources to trying to contain SARS-CoV-2 infections, which in turn reduce efforts to prevent and treat cancer and other critical diseases. This could cost many lives.
Carbone and colleagues note that the National Cancer Institute (NCI) has estimated that this could be responsible for about 10,000 additional colon and breast cancer deaths, as early cancer screening for these diseases has been largely suspended. .
Moreover, the NCI estimate did not take into account other cancers and assumed that all will return to normal by January 2021 – which did not happen. The actual number of collateral deaths can be much higher.
Misleading statistics
According to Carbone and colleagues, about 70 percent of SARS-CoV-2 infections are asymptomatic – but testing largely targets people who have symptoms; consequently, we underestimate the extent of infections.
We also overestimate the deaths caused by COVID-19, they say. Anyone who dies, who has tested positive for COVID-19, is considered a victim of the virus. We do not determine if the virus was the leading cause of death.
Three out of four seriously ill patients are men, and most deaths occur in the elderly with pre-existing conditions. COVID-19 deaths in those under the age of 40, without pre-existing conditions, are very rare.
Vaccines
Three vaccines have recently become available.
Astra-Zeneca produced the “Oxford” vaccine, which is currently only distributed in the UK.
Pfizer and Moderna each produced an RNA vaccine. These vaccines are available in the US and Europe. RNA vaccines use a new technology that has not been applied to mass vaccination before.
Antibodies are proteins produced by the immune system that protect us from infections. About 95% of vaccinated subjects developed IgG antibodies that should protect them from the virus.
But these vaccines have been tested mainly on healthy adults under the age of 60. Few older individuals who received vaccines produced fewer IgG antibodies.
Vaccines have not been tested in children.
These vaccines will not stop the spread of COVID-19
IgG antibodies circulate in our blood and protect us from a systemic infection, ie viruses that spread in our body and make us sick.
Another type of antibody, called “IgA”, protects the surfaces of the body’s mucosa, such as the nose, pharynx and intestines.
To date, no clinical trials have been performed on vaccines that produce IgA antibodies. The vaccines tested only produce IgG antibodies.
This means that the SARS-CoV-2 virus can continue to infect the mucosal surfaces of vaccinated people.
This should not be a problem for vaccinated people. IgG antibodies in their vaccinations should stop the virus from spreading in their body, but the virus that grows on the surfaces of the mucosa in their body can spread to others.
However, infected people produce both IgA and IgG antibodies, so once they have recovered from the infection, they are “safe”. Reinfections are extremely rare.
When more than 60% of the population has antibodies that protect them from the virus, the spread of the virus will decrease because the virus will not be able to easily find susceptible targets. This is called “herd immunity”.
No one knows how long the herd’s immunity will last, but for SARS, which is caused by a related virus, it takes several years.
Children
The main – or only – reason for vaccinating children is to protect adults, according to Carbone and his colleagues. Children – except those with some serious illness or genetic disorder – generally do not get COVID-19.
COVID-19 vaccinations cause pain, fever and headaches that last for several days in most adult recipients. We do not know what the side effects would be in children.
Will people vaccinate their children knowing these things?
When will it end?
The fact that the vaccines currently being tested will not produce IgA antibodies would not be a big problem if everyone were vaccinated, but this is not likely to happen.
Therefore, these vaccines alone will not get rid of the virus in the near future.
SARS-CoV-2 is spreading rapidly. Ten to 20 percent of tests globally prove positive.
Therefore, according to Carbone and his colleagues, a combination of vaccinations and infections should cause the herd immunity soon, possibly until June, when COVID-19 will decrease and – hopefully – almost disappear soon.
Meanwhile, more effective treatments are being developed; thus, the mortality rate in COVID-19 should decrease in the coming months.
Nolan Rappaport was detailed to the Judicial Committee of the Chamber as an expert in executive immigration law in the executive branch for three years. He later served as an immigration lawyer for the Subcommittee on Immigration, Border Security and Claims for four years. Prior to working on the Judicial Committee, he wrote decisions for the Immigration Appeals Board for 20 years. Follow his blog the https://nolanrappaport.blogspot.com.