The oddsmakers thought about what the line would be in an AFC championship game between Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs for days. However, on Sunday afternoon, after the match was set, the opening line ranged wildly, from Chiefs -4 to Bills -2.5, to sports books around the world.
That hurt Patrick Mahomes in the betting market and that’s just the beginning.
By late Sunday night, the line had settled with the Chiefs as 2.5-point favorites, with a few cards at -3. He is unlikely to stay there.
Mahomes left the Chiefs victory 22-17 in the playoffs against the Cleveland Browns in the second half, with a concussion. His status for the AFC championship game was up in the air on Monday. If he plays, the line will almost certainly grow. If he leaves, Buffalo could become the favorite, and the Green Bay Packers could become Super Bowl favorites.
“If Muhammad were ruled out, the Bills would be a decent favorite,” John Murray, executive director of SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, said Sunday night, noting that some of its forecast makers have designed an equally large line. as Buffalo -7 if he is backed Chad Henne starts for the Chiefs instead of Muhammad. “That sounds a little extreme to me, but it gives you an idea of how far it is from Muhammad to Henne in terms of spreading the point.”
Johnny Avello, director of sports books for DraftKings, expected the Chiefs to remain favorites to win the Super Bowl, but he knows the gap has narrowed significantly with Muhammad’s injury.
“They will still be the favorites, but they will be a little tight,” Avello said.
On Sunday night, the American sports cards William Hill had the leaders at +200 to win the Super Bowl, followed by Packers at +225, Bills +300 and Buccaneers +400. But much could change this week.
In the meantime, here are the notable bets.
NFL
• On Sunday night, the Packers were consensual favorites by 4 points over the Buccaneers in the NFC championship game. SuperBook opened Green Bay at -4.5 and quickly took the money on the Buccaneers subdog, bringing the number to -4.
• In the AFC championship game, most early bets were on SuperBook bills. “Although the biggest bet so far has been one for $ 20,000 on Chiefs -3 (even),” Murray said. “The public likes both teams, even if the bosses continue to take down the bettors. They failed to cover once again today.”
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in eight of the last nine games.
• Late money appeared at the Browns that led to the start of Sunday. The line, which flew between Kansas City -10 and -9.5 all week, dropped to -7.5 before the start. SuperBook reported taking late money to Cleveland as the entire market headed for the Browns.
“The difference between 7.5 and 9.5 is not that big,” said Avello, DrafKings. “I don’t know why this thing went down. I can’t explain why they took nine, eight and a half and eight.”
At Circa Sports, a Las Vegas sports book known for answering professional bettors, there were several bets on Kansas City, but more money was wagered on Cleveland.
“All the big bets we take are still on the Browns,” Matt Metcalf, director of the sportsbook for Circa Sports in Las Vegas, said in a text message before Sunday’s game. “It simply came to our notice then [Cleveland plus] 8 for a long time a minute ago. “
• The Chiefs led 22-10 with just over 11 minutes left, when Muhammad was officially ruled out for the rest of the game. Kansas City was a massive favorite at the time, -900 to win the game straight. After Browns’ touchdown reduced the lead to 22-17 and Muhammad was ruled out, live odds shifted to Chiefs -500.
• The most popular player proposal bet on the Browns-Chiefs game from the New Jersey Tipico sports card was under 260.5 on Baker Mayfield passes, which accounted for 50% of the card’s share of players’ props.
• Sunday’s Buccaneers-Saints game was the strongest bet of the weekend for several sports cards.
• A PointsBet sports card bettor placed a $ 5,400 per point bet on the Bills -3.5 against the Ravens. In this example, the point bet, commonly known as point bets, was based on the number of points through which the invoices covered the spread. They covered the difference with 11.5 points, and the bettor won $ 56,700 net.
• Saturday’s Rams-Packers game was considered by some to be a “Pro vs. Joes ”. Rams, who did not win, attracted interest in early bets from professional bettors at +7. The line dropped to Green Bay -6.5 and remained there most of the week, despite inappropriate betting on preferred packages. At the launch of PointsBet, 82% of bets and 89% of bets were on Green Bay. The Packers won and covered the 32-18 spread.
NBA
Favorite nets in the Eastern Conference after the Harden trade
After the acquisition of James Harden, the Brooklyn Nets moved to the Milwaukee Bucks and are now favorites for the Eastern Conference. But some odds makers aren’t yet sold on the NBA’s newest senior team.
Nets share odds improved from 12-1 to 7-2 last week on the SuperBook. Jeff Sherman, who oversees the SuperBook’s NBA odds, began shortening Brooklyn’s odds on Tuesday after Harden told reporters he didn’t think the Houston situation could be resolved. Sherman first reduced the Nets to 8-1, then to 6-1 before going 7-2 after trading.
Only the Los Angeles Lakers have better title odds than the Nets, who drew big SuperBook bets in the pre-season and more recently, including a $ 10,000 bet in December. The Bucks have the second-best Eastern Conference lead at 8-1, followed by the Boston Celtics, Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers at 20-1.
“I don’t have as much separation between them and some of the other teams in the East, as the odds on the title indicate,” Sherman said. “When you see the Nets 7-2 and the Bucks 8-1, and the Heat, Celtics and Sixers 20-1, I don’t think there is so much difference based on the game than what seems to be based on the share of the title. . “
Sherman said his power ratings on the Nets are uneasy for now, waiting to see how Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and Harden develop chemistry.
“I can talk about a good game all they want, but we don’t know how the chemistry will come out of this,” Sherman said. “There have already been rumors that Irving would not be happy with the Nets behind the scenes. Will it make him more unhappy?”
Three questions
… together with Scott Butera, co-CEO of the sports book platform Vigtory, which last week announced its intentions to be acquired by the live TV streaming platform fuboTV. The purchase agreement is in the final stages and, when finalized, fuboTV expects to launch a book of bets before the end of the year.
Q: What is your vision for the product that will come out of the fuboTV-Vigtory agreement?
A: I think being able to watch live sports and make trades and bet on sports is very strong. I also think it gives us great coverage in terms of covering customers, purchasing them. We will announce the product at the right time, but the whole idea is that you will have a kind of simultaneous experience between consuming sports, watching sports and the possibility to bet on sports and make transactions on sports. It could be betting, it could be goods, getting tickets. I think the whole idea is to create these global entertainment experiences that are multifaceted. I found that there is a lot of synergy between the two.
Q: What obstacles remain to launch such a service?
A: In terms of obstacles, clearly, like any other operator, we will have a plan to launch the state. We’re up to our knees in this. Adopt the right legislation in jurisdictions it has not yet adopted. I think these things will evolve over time. I think this combination [with fuboTV] it helps us get a lot out of things and I think there are a lot of different ways we can get to the markets now, that go beyond just the traditional ways a sports book would do, either through streaming services or other products on which we can introduce do not necessarily have the same regulatory challenges that sports betting has at the moment. In fact, it helps us eliminate many of them.
Q: Vigtory’s approach to sports betting was to offer a low-betting sports betting option. Is it the whole plan?
A: Our plan has always been to have a truly excellent product and great value. We want to have outstanding technology, outstanding experiences and we want to have good value. And value is not necessarily defined by price; it is defined by what you receive for what you paid for and this has always been our goal.