Ontario data show that coronavirus decline has been reduced and delayed procedures are a major concern

The latest Ontario government modeling data suggests that progress in reducing coronavirus cases has stalled and delayed medical procedures are poised to have a strong impact on the health care system.

“The decrease in community cases and the testing of positivity have decreased. Cases are on the rise in most public health units as we see increased mobility, ”Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of COVID-19 Science Advisory Table in Ontario, told reporters on Thursday afternoon.

“Concerns continue to spread in Ontario, and our ability to control the rate of spread will determine whether we return to normal or face a third wave of infection.”

Officials said once again that the coming weeks would be “critical” in setting restrictions in the summer, noting that masking and spacing restrictions would be needed to control the spread of more contagious variants of COVID-19.

“We know exactly what to do,” he said.

“Although it is difficult and I know that everyone is at their limits, only a little more discipline with masking and distancing will help reduce cases.”

Projections have estimated that in the next two to three weeks, COVID-19 rates could increase to 8,000 new cases per day at worst, depending on the spread of the variants.

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If public health measures are followed and restrictions are put in place to contain any sharp rise, projections indicate that the rate could be kept to just under 2,000 cases a day.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty right now, and with that, a lot of risk and a lot of danger,” Brown said.

If case rates are allowed to rise again, he warned that the danger remains that the Ontario hospital system will be overwhelmed.

Even in an optimistic scenario, which sees an increase in “small” capacity, Brown said the province could see another 400 patients occupying intensive care beds weekly.

“It’s important to remember that this is not (just) a small increase,” he said.

“This is a growth of an already tense system, which creates a challenge in access to care.”

The scientific advisory table COVID-19 sounded the alarm for delayed care and missed screening for other chronic diseases.

“There will be a substantial and prolonged increase in the need for care in the sectors. Our actions now will actually determine our ability to access care later, Brown said.

For example, the presentation highlighted a previous “substantial” decrease in cancer screening tests, which will result in “long-term consequences for cancer outcomes”.

Regarding the province’s surgical backlog, the Table reported that there were zero surgical cases as of March 15, 2020. The total increased to about 75,000 cases in May and then the surgical restart program began. In February, there were 227,410 accumulated surgical cases.

However, there was encouraging news contained in the province’s data.

Brown said COVID-19 vaccinations in long-term care facilities continue to bear fruit, with declining cases of residents and staff. He also said the deaths had flattened out with a reported death in almost a week.

– With files from The Canadian Press

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