Odd Man Out Sweden, hit by viruses, receives the program

Photographer: Jonathan Nackstarnd / AFP / Getty Images

After arguably adopting the world’s mildest approach to treating the coronavirus pandemic, Sweden is tightening its grip.

As of Sunday, Prime Minister Stefan Lofven’s government may fine and close non-compliant businesses, such as visitor ceilings and private assembly restrictions, under a new law that runs until September. It is a departure from relying primarily on recommendations and trusting people to follow them. Given that the health care system is in constant constraint and deaths are rising, some say it was too little too late.

“Like many places in Sweden learned about the virus hardly, ”said William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s Boston School of Public Health, who closely followed the country’s strategy. “Sweden has been too slow. There has been a lot of evidence in the spring, in Sweden and elsewhere, about what could be expected in the autumn and winter if the policy were not changed and these are the consequences. ”

While pursuing its unusual strategy, Sweden questioned the decisions of other nations to blockade. Its path to mandatory restrictions has left the Nordic country with more than three times more virus deaths per capita than Denmark, the closest regional colleague in terms of deaths. Confidence in the government has waned and has been exacerbated by senior officials – including Lofven himself – who have broken their own rules. Even King Carl XVI Gustaf called the nation’s response a failure.

As in the rest of the world, pandemic debates have focused on balancing people’s health against the consequences of closing economies. Sweden’s economy has weathered better than most, while deaths now exceed 9,600.

Nordic Outlier

The death toll in Sweden, Covid-19, is the highest in the Nordics

Source: Johns Hopkins University

Top epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, who in June labeled countries that opted for strict blockades as “crazy, ”he said, saying the pandemic law should not be seen as a return, but rather an extension of what has already been done.

“We are still working mainly with voluntary measures for individuals,” he said in an interview. “And we work mainly with the regulation of different types of agencies, different types of stores where regulations are needed to fulfill their obligations.”

One of Tegnell’s main detractors, Professor Bjorn Olsen of Uppsala University, said that “reality has caught up with the Public Health Agency.”

“They were extremely stubborn to maintain the strategy without listening or doing any external analysis,” he said.

Anders Litzen lost his 71-year-old mother Agnetha in the spring, sitting next to her for the past 16 hours, with full protective gear. The 42-year-old, who lost his job due to the pandemic and started working as a runner at a hospital, said the government’s communication was too vague.

“My mother and I think most Swedes didn’t take it seriously,” Litzen said. “I can’t say that what Sweden did is right or wrong, but from a personal perspective I think that when you want to send a message, it has to be strong and clear.”

Lofven and health officials, who face early criticism including from President Donald Trump, he acknowledged in April that the country had failed to protect its elderly in nursing homes. A government-appointed commission recently came to a similar conclusion.

Sweden has made “good decisions” on stricter measures, Mike Ryan, the head of the World Health Organization’s emergency program, told reporters on Monday.

“It’s an example of how difficult it is to support social and public health measures, which are purely determined by the individual’s desire or determination to take those measures,” Ryan said. “Somehow it tells us that at the beginning of 2021 how difficult, how challenging that environment is.”

Health versus economy

The largest economy in the northern region has withstood the crisis better than most Western nations, with its factories being less affected by supply disruptions in the latter part of 2020.

Differences in blocking strategies between the Nordic and Baltic countries have been offset by their common dependence on production, so they have benefited from a recovery in global trade, according to SEB AB chief economist Robert Bergqvist. “As we summarize 2020, the industry has helped us withstand some of the recessions in many other countries.”

Jump after the holiday

Economic activity partially recovered in early January

Source: Bloomberg Economics, Google, Moovitapp.com, German Bureau of Statistics, BloombergNEF, Indeed.com, Shoppertrak.com, Opportunity Insights

Low debt levels have also allowed Sweden to trigger fiscal incentives, backed by Riksbank’s asset purchase program. While the pandemic law may require additional stimulus measures, “in an international perspective, Sweden will continue to have very strong central government finances,” Danske Bank said in its Nordic perspective last week.

Driving goal