For the New York Lottery Police Department, Monday was a very big night.
The Mavericks lost the fifth game in a row to fall to 8-13, and the Knicks gave up the fifth of six outings to fall to 9-13. The Knicks are now the weakest seasons of four games under 0.500.
If the season ended today, the Knicks would hold the sixth and ninth seed in the 2021 NBA Project Lottery.
From the Kristaps Porzingis trade two years ago, the Knicks have the first unprotected selection of the Mavericks this year (the first round of Dallas 2023 has a top 10 protection).
So while Knicks fans may be back soon to cheer up another tank, they should know full well that the first nine lottery lots have as good a chance of failure as they do of success.
Just look at the Knicks list and the situations in four of the top nine lottery selections – Kevin Knox (2018), Obi Toppin (2020), Frank Ntilikina (2017) and Dennis Smith Jr. (2017, purchased at the Porzingis store ).
Ironically, one of their top young players, rookie goalkeeper Immanuel Quickley, was taken 25th after being projected as a mid-round pick.
As of today, Knox is no longer part of Tom Thibodeau’s 10-man rotation with the club now healthier than it was all season.
Ntilikina has also been out of rotation since returning last week from a sprained knee. Smith Jr. is on his way to Orlando to play for Westchester Knicks in the G-League ball, being buried from the start.
And then there’s the curious case of Toppin, the No. 8 voter in November, who came in with a starry resume from Dayton. The university player of the year missed three weeks with a calf stalk, but returned to rotation on January 13 as an easy-to-use reserve.
The 22-year-old forward had little impact, with Julius Randle occupying most of the minutes. Toppin seems a little lost running around, setting the screens, opening and not receiving the ball.
Toppin did not show enough strength to create his own shot. He also shoots just 26% of the 3-point distance – which means his future as stretch 4 is uncertain.
“He’s someone you just don’t know yet,” said an NBA coach.
In Chicago on Monday, Toppin replaced Randle to start the fourth quarter. But in less than two minutes, Thibodeau snatched it for Randle. In his time of 1:57, Toppin committed two fouls and did not make any shots.
Thibodeau said the Bulls owned the panels and wanted Randle to return to the competition. Toppin played with an 8:46 loss, scoring four points and trying to shoot himself – an alley-oop shot.
Thibodeau indicated that Toppin’s defense is still a problem. Clearly, Toppin missed the summer league more than most newcomers from a major in Dayton, who never had a chance to show off in the NCAA tournament that was canceled due to the pandemic.
Maybe Toppin’s stock project wouldn’t have been as big if it hadn’t dominated Big Dance, but we’ll never know. He averages 4.6 points in 12 games.
“He played pretty well,” Thibodeau said after the contest. “(Monday) I started the fourth and the recovery was a problem. And so they just play around. But I like the things he does, he plays with good energy. I’d say most of it is that he’s learning the NBA. ”
Toppin’s defense was his problem coming out of Dayton. That’s why Cleveland went with Isaac Okoro in 5th place, when the sketches had Toppin, the 22-year-old, set to stay in Ohio.
“Defending and being a hard-working guy, you have to do more,” Thibodeau said of Toppin. “Maybe he gets the initial part, but the second, third and fourth part must be done. So we ask him to do a lot. He picked her up. It’s getting better. I like his approach. I just have to keep working. ”
As announced, Thibodeau is playing the guys he thinks will help him win – regardless of his lottery resume, youth or potential.
So Knox is in the game. He took two straight DNPs and Thibodeau confirmed that he was not in the 10-man rotation. However, Thibodeau will not send him to the G League, as he is still knocking on the door.
“In Kevin’s situation, he is still very situational and things can change quickly depending on matches, mistakes, injuries, illnesses,” Thibodeau said. “He would be the next guy in. Some of them could be matches.”
The Knicks have lost two in a row since Knox were snatched, giving up 129 points and 115 points, respectively. Defense is Knox’s weak point. On Monday, the Knicks shot just 6 of 29 from a 3-point lead. Knox’s specialty is 3-ball.
Meanwhile, Ntilikina has suffered four DNPs since his return. He is a defensive specialist, and Thibodeau is a defensive coach.
As the Knicks nestle in Chicago, awaiting Wednesday’s rematch at United Center, Thibodeau has a lot to think about.
But so do Knicks fans who believe that the lottery is always the way to nirvana.