The 2021 NFL project begins in nine days and there are five potential quarterback thrills that look set to go earlier in the first round. However, history tells us that only two of the five will make it to the NFL.
Yes, that’s right. That’s me That guy – the guy who throws the thrush of reality into the bowl with his fist of pre-draft enthusiasm. As the round gets 1 inch closer, expectations increase. Every fan of each team sees the project as a lifeline – the annual event that will turn their sad franchise or provide the last piece that you are sure will turn the good / big team into a champion.
Although all this is part of the fun, not exactly what will happen. Or at least it’s not what normal it happens. History tells us that a first-round pick is unlikely to reach a second contract with your favorite team. And if your team receives a defender, history tells us that it has only a 42.2% chance of reaching that second contract.
“Oh yes?” you ask. “What history is this, exactly?” – And I’ll tell you. Thanks to researcher as Paul Hembekides and people who face numbers at ESPN Stats & Information, we have data on every first round from 2000 to 2016 – all 540 – and whether or not they reached a second contract with the team that drafted them. In total, 232 of 540 were resigned by the team that drafted them at the end of their rookie contracts. That’s right – about 43%. These are the first round choices, be careful, not the whole sketch. This is the most important round, the round that gains glory. And even in this round, the data say that teams have less than a 50% chance of hitting.
Pretty harsh reality check, right?
“There are a lot of things you can’t control,” said an NFC executive who preferred not to be identified because he practically no one he wants to be caught talking about the project at this time of year. “Enter 20 years in money that they have never seen before and this will automatically introduce distraction from what determined them to the point where they are. There are injuries, of course. There are changes in the system. That is, some defenders never receive a correct shot. You change systems, you change coaches, sometimes two or three times during that rookie contract, and you have to look at it as an organizational failure rather than a prospect’s failure itself. “
Right point, while we look at the Jets case. Three years ago, they switched from No. 6 to No. 3 in the project to take on Sam Darnold. They fired coach Todd Bowles and general manager Mike MacCagnan after Darnold’s first year and fired coach Adam Gase after his third. They picked second in this year’s draft and just changed Darnold to the Panthers because they decided to replace him.
Darnold is not even part of our ESPN Stats & Info study, because it was written in 2018. These numbers are only valid until 2016, because it is too early to know for sure if all the boys written in 2017 or later will reaches the second contracts. This is the season in which the options for the fifth year will be decided. Fifteen of the 32 first-rounders in the 2017 class are no longer part of the teams that drafted them, and Darnold is the second of five defenders to participate in the first round in 2018, which has already been changed and replaced. Those projects do not have much better trends than the 17 we analyzed for this article.
In studying the ones written in the period 2000-16, we found some differences depending on the position. Offensive calm seems to be the most likely first-round pick to succeed. Of the 55 offensive attacks taken in the first round between 2000-16, 33 received a second contract with the teams that drafted them. That means 60%. Twelve of the 26 guards in the first round (46.2%) and all nine in the centers in the first round (100%) succeeded. Linebacker is also a relatively safe choice, as 54.8% (23 of 42) of those drafted were re-signed to secondary contracts. But man, it’s ugly after that.
Did you get started on all the wide receivers available to your team in the first round this year? Not so fast, my friend. Broad receivers were the highest rated group in this study. Of the 70 recipients drafted between 2000-16, only 19 reached secondary contracts with the team that drafted them. And that includes Odell Beckham Jr. and Tavon Austin, who haven’t become exactly legendary Giants or Rams. For every Calvin Johnson, there is a Kevin White. For each Julio Jones, an AJ Jenkins. This doesn’t mean that your team shouldn’t choose a wide receiver sooner – extending the superstar is extremely valuable, after all – just that any individual choice is relatively relatively long.
The next group with the worst position in this study is the defensive attack (35.3%) and then the defender (35.5%). Part of this could be attributed to a poor fit of the scheme.
“When you ask players to do exactly the same thing they did in college, they’ll probably be fine,” said former GM Jets and Dolphins (and current ESPN NFL analyst) Mike Tannenbaum. “When you ask them to do something different, then you bring in the unknowns and the risk increases.”
Are there teams that have been more successful than others in keeping their options in the first round? Yes, but remember that this is only a 17-year-old sample, and teams usually have a choice in the first round of the year. That being said, the Cowboys signed a league-high 73.3% (11 of 15) in the second-round 2000-16 second-round pick. They are closely followed by the Panthers and Texans at 68.8% (both 11 of 16), the Eagles at 60% (9 of 15) and the Steelers at 58.82% (10 of 17).
At the bottom of the list are the Broncos and Jaguars, each of them making 17 selections in the first round on that stretch and signing only contracts from four to the second (23.5%). Others at the bottom include Browns and Lions at 25% (every 5 out of 20) and Cardinals and Bill at 27.8% (every 5 out of 18).
How about the defenders? There were 45 taken in the 17 projects from 2000-16, and 19 of them (42.2%) received the second contract from the teams that drafted them. These include Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton. It includes Super Bowl champions Eli Manning, Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger. But it also includes Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, the first two picks in the 2016 draft, which were changed out of this season by the teams that drafted them before the second contract was even initiated in terms of technical.
Does it matter how high they are picked? A kind of. Nine of the 12 defenders taken with the general election no. 1 of those drafts got the second contract with the teams that chose them. (Those who did not do so were JaMarcus Russell, Sam Bradford and Jameis Winston.) Only one of the three who was selected number 2 received one (Wentz). Only one of the four who finished 3rd received one (Ryan). Philip Rivers, who was elected 4th in 2004, received one. That is 12 out of 19 in general. Finding a Roethlisberger at number 11 or a Rodgers at number 24 is pretty much like finding a gold ticket in your Wonka bar.
1:06
Mina Kimes explains why she thinks Trey Lance is the most interesting defender in the draft.
The problem is that so much happens if a quarterback is successful in the NFL. It’s more than the player’s ability and mental makeup. It often comes down to the situation. What kind of team is built around it? How long does it take before it is ready to play and how long does it take? Who trains him? How much more will he be asked than he was asked to do in college and how will he cope?
“In college, you see guys looking at the sidelines for every game on the coaching team,” Tannenbaum said. “In the NFL, with 15 seconds left on the game clock, communication between coach and defender is disrupted. If you don’t have the ability to get into the right game on your own, it’s hard to be a successful NFL defender.”
This whole thing is hard. This is forgotten by too many people and everyone should remember April 29, when Roger Goodell shouts names and fans organize parties or chairs depending on whether they like the choice or not. It is not a matter of choosing the right type and connecting it. It’s a matter of choosing the right type, putting the right structure in place to make sure it works, and hoping nothing will go wrong to eliminate it. Add all this and it’s easy to see why most first-round picks fail. And why the first night of the project is just the beginning of a long and involved process that will determine if they do.