SEOUL, South Korea (AP) – After North Korea tacitly dealt with the Biden administration for two months, North Korea this week called on two powerful women to warn Washington of combined military exercises with South Korea and the diplomatic ramifications of his ‘hostile’ policies towards Pyongyang. .
However, the frustration and fighting spirit can be a prelude.
North Korea’s initial remarks to the new US administration, while filled with angry rhetoric, could be seen as the start of a diplomatic back-and-forth as the North strives to return to stalled talks aimed at using are nuclear weapons for the much needed economic situation. benefits.
The timing of the North Korean statements was carefully chosen, with front-page comments and news outlets as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin traveled to Asia for talks with US allies Tokyo and Seoul about the North Korean threat and other regional challenges.
Whether negotiations take place may depend on the Biden government’s policy review of North Korea, which is expected to be finalized in the coming weeks.
WHAT NORTH KOREA SAYS
On Tuesday, Kim Jong Un’s powerful sister denounced the latest US-South Korean military exercises, which were scheduled to end a nine-day run on Thursday.
Kim Yo Jong described the drills as an invasion rehearsal and warned Washington not to “cause a stench” if it wants to “sleep in peace” for the next four years.
North Korean First Deputy Secretary of State Choe Sun Hui said in a statement Thursday that the North will continue to ignore US offers for talks unless it renounces what the North describes as hostile policy.
Choe responded this week to Blinken’s comments that Washington has contacted the North through various channels as of mid-February, but received no response.
“What has been heard from the US since the rise of the new regime is just an insane theory of ‘threat from North Korea’ and baseless rhetoric about ‘complete denuclearization’,” said Choe, who talks to US offers for a “time. – procrastination trick. “
WHAT PYONGYANG WANTS
According to Shin Beomchul, an analyst at Seoul-based Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, Choe’s statement could be an attempt by the North to create an environment to resume nuclear negotiations from a strong position.
Negotiations between Washington and Seoul have stalled for more than two years since the collapse of the nuclear summit between Kim Jong-un and former US President Donald Trump in 2019. The two sides have disagreed on the details of a plan to implement sanctions. to exchange disarmament. Pyongyang has repeatedly claimed it will not hold meaningful talks while Washington insists on sanctions and pressure.
“It is clear that the North is trying to strengthen its negotiating position,” said Shin.
But North Korea could also be preparing for tougher words to the Biden administration over Blinken’s repeated condemnation in Seoul of the human rights situation in the North, something Trump largely ignored while pursuing media-friendly summits with Kim. That could make future negotiations more difficult
The North is extremely sensitive to outside criticism of its dire human rights conditions, which it sees as an attack on its leadership, and Choe’s statement appeared to have been drafted before the North could decide on a response to Blinken’s comments.
“There is likely to be serious opposition from the north” over Blinken’s comments on human rights, said Park Won Gon, a professor of North Korea studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
CALLS AND PRESSURE
Most experts agree that the North will eventually try to return to the negotiations to try and get help, but they disagree on when – and what it would take to resume the talks.
Kim has recently been defiant about fostering a nuclear arsenal that he sees as his strongest guarantee of survival. He has also urged his people to be resilient in the fight for economic self-reliance while launching a new multi-year plan to save its broken economy.
Kim’s focus on his domestic economic drive could mean the North will stay away from talks for another year and only come back after it becomes clear that Kim’s new policy is failing, Shin said.
“If North Korea is really desperate for a quick resumption of talks, they would test an intercontinental ballistic missile around April 15, the birthday of Kim’s state-founding grandfather Kim Il Sung, to put pressure on Washington,” Shin said. .
But he said it’s more likely the North will avoid provoking the Biden government – and provoking more pressure – because Kim’s priority is to quietly strengthen his country as a nuclear power, which is also a major goal of its domestic economic drive.
The North could still try to conduct short-range test launches that threaten South Korea, but not the American homeland. But, Shin said, “they will at least postpone any dramatic move until the Biden administration’s policy review is completed.”
Kim faces a troubled relationship with Washington as his country faces sanctions, pandemic border closures and natural disasters driving the North toward greater economic instability.
Whatever moves the north, the recent reports indicate it will not return to talks unless the United States provides at least some measure of sanction relief. However, that’s unlikely without a meaningful cut in Kim’s nuclear capabilities.