Mutated versions of the coronavirus threaten to prolong the pandemic, perhaps for years – killing more people and deepening the global economic crisis in the process.
The whole picture: The US and the world are in a race for virus control before these variants gain a greater foothold. But many experts say they are already expecting things to get worse before they get better. And that also means that the end of the pandemic could be further.
- “It can take four to five years before we finally see the end of the pandemic and the beginning of a normal post-COVID, “Singapore’s education minister said last week, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Where is it: “There are essentially two separate epidemics of COVID-19,” Dutch officials said recently, referring to the original strain of COVID-19 and the growing threat of mutant versions of the virus.
- There is a light at the end of the tunnel for the first epidemic. Although the virus is still spreading uncontrollably in the United States and much of the world, cases and hospitalizations have dropped from the top and vaccinations are on the rise.
- But the next iteration, fueled by variants of the virus, is already under control.
What’s next: A British variant of coronavirus is likely to become the dominant strain in the US soon, experts say. It is significantly more contagious than the virus we have encountered so far and some researchers believe it can also be about 30% more deadly.
- “The hurricane is coming,” Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota and Biden transition counselor, told Meet the Press on Sunday.
- A more contagious and lethal strain of the virus could easily send cases, hospitalizations and deaths back to record levels, even if vaccinations continue to rise.
“We are going to see something like I haven’t seen in this country yet, “Osterholm said.
Vaccines work against the British variant and will help control its spread, just as they will help control the pandemic in general.
- But vaccinations can grow so fast. The Biden administration is trying to push the doses out the door as fast as it can, but there is a very good chance that the more contagious virus will move faster.
- Existing vaccines do not appear to work as well against other variants, including one of particular concern identified for the first time in South Africa. It works and seems to prevent serious illness and death, which are the most important things – but it may not prevent as many infections in general.
- Vaccine manufacturers can redo their prescriptions and come up with booster photos to help address more resistant strains, but this will take time.
How it works: All these problems come from the same basic problem – the uncontrolled spread of the virus.
- More cases means more hospitalizations and more deaths. Larger foci also provide more opportunities for mutations to occur and spread.
- A more transmissible virus means that a larger share of the population – perhaps up to 85% – should be vaccinated to reach herd immunity. This will be a stretch, given the widespread hesitation of the vaccine across the country.
Because vaccine production is still growing, control of things well enough to start a second phase of the pandemic should be largely based on social distancing and wearing a mask.
- It is not a very promising position, especially for a country like the USA
Bottom line: Vaccines work and are still the key to ending this pandemic. But leaning on them almost exclusively only makes the job harder and will probably prolong this pandemic for years.