JERUSALEM (PA) – Israelis began voting in the country’s fourth parliamentary election in two years on Tuesday – an extremely busy referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s divisive rule.
Opinion polls predict a close race between those who support Israel’s longest-serving prime minister and those who want “anyone but Bibi,” as he is widely known.
“This is the moment of truth for the state of Israel,” Netanyahu’s rival, Yair Lapid, said as he voted in Tel Aviv.
One truth: the Israelis are tired of the upheavals. The vote, like Israel’s leading global vaccination campaign, received good reviews for the organization – just because everyone involved had a lot of practice, with the potential even more if the results don’t produce a government majority. This answer may not be clear for weeks.
“It would be better if we did not have to vote four times in two years,” Jerusalem resident Bruse Rosen said after the vote. “It’s a little tiring.”
Candidates have made their final push in recent days with a series of TV interviews and public appearances at malls and open-air markets. Campaigns have increasingly reached people’s personal space, with a constant barrage of outgoing and voting texts, which have made mobile phones ring and ring at any hour.
Netanyahu is more than an ideology. He described himself as a uniquely qualified global statesman to lead the country through its many diplomatic and security challenges. He made the successful coronavirus vaccination campaign in Israel the central element of his re-election candidacy and underlined last year’s diplomatic agreements with four Arab states.
The reality is more nuanced. About 80% of the nation’s 9.3 million people are vaccinated and Israel is reopening, but more than 6,000 have died of COVID-19. Israel has been criticized internationally for not quickly sending significant amounts of vaccines to Palestinians to combat the virus’s rise in the West Bank and Gaza.
And one of the four Arab nations, the United Arab Emirates, recently poured cold water on relations with Israel because its leaders did not want Netanyahu to draw them into the election. And President Joe Biden’s new administration has given Netanyahu a warm welcome.
Opponents accuse Netanyahu of managing the coronavirus pandemic for most of last year. They say it has failed to enforce restrictions blocking its ultra-Orthodox political allies, allowing the virus to spread and pointing to the still dire state of the economy and double-digit unemployment. They also say that Netanyahu is not fit to rule at a time when he is on trial for several corruption charges, a case he dismisses as a witch hunt.
Up to 15% of the electorate is expected to vote outside their home districts, a lot of votes for absentees, which is higher than usual to accommodate those with coronavirus or quarantine. The government is sending special polling stations, including bringing ballot boxes to patients’ beds, to provide them with safe voting methods.
These votes are recorded separately in Jerusalem, which means that the final results may not be known for days. Given the tight race, the large number of undecided voters and the number of small parties struggling to cross the 3.25% threshold for entry into parliament, it may be difficult to predict the outcome before the final count is completed.
Israelis vote for parties, not for individual candidates. No list of party candidates has managed to form a government majority in Israel’s 72-year history.
Netanyahu’s Likud party and those led by its rivals will look for smaller, allied parties as potential coalition partners. The party that can form a majority coalition ends up forming the next government – a process that is expected to take weeks.
Tuesday’s election was triggered by the disintegration of an emergency government formed in May last year between Netanyahu and his main rival to manage the coronavirus pandemic. The alliance has been plagued by fighting, and elections have been triggered by the government’s failure in December to agree on a budget.
Netanyahu hopes to form a government with his traditional religious and national allies. These include a pair of ultra-Orthodox parties and a small religious party that openly includes racist and homophobic candidates.
Netanyahu’s rivals have accused him of causing paralysis over the past two years in hopes of forming a more favorable government that would grant him immunity or protect him from prosecution.
Among his provocateurs is Yair Lapid, the leader of the Israeli opposition whose Yesh Atid party emerged as the main centrist alternative to Netanyahu.
Lapid reflected the rhetoric of the race on Tuesday, when he offered himself as an alternative to a “government of darkness and racism.”
Netanyahu also faces challenges from several former allies who formed their own parties after bitter partings of the prime minister.
These include former protégé Gideon Saar, who broke away from Likud to form the “New Hope”. He says the party is a nationalist alternative unweighted by allegations of corruption and what he says is a cult of personality that keeps Likud in power.
Yamina party leader Naftali Bennett, another former Netanyahu adviser, could emerge as king. A harsh nationalist politician, who was Netanyahu’s former minister of education and defense, Bennett did not rule out joining a coalition with the attacked prime minister, allowing him to court both sides in future coalition talks.
Personality politics has overtaken the race so much that almost no Palestinians have been mentioned, after years of frozen peace talks.
Analysts expect voter fatigue to contribute to the decline in turnout, which was 71% in the most recent election a year ago.
Netanyahu’s religious and nationalist allies tend to be highly motivated voters. Instead, Arab voters, disappointed by the disintegration of the umbrella party “Common List”, are expected to stay home in greater numbers this time. Voters in the more liberal and secular areas around Tel Aviv also tend to have lower turnout rates.
Netanyahu could benefit if these trends materialize. But unlike last year’s election, the prime minister does not have a single key ally: former President Donald Trump, whose support he used in previous elections, with massive billboards on highways and high towers showing them together.
Instead, Netanyahu barely mentioned Biden. The new US president called the prime minister only after he contacted leaders in several other countries, and Israeli supporters began to complain that the delay had cast doubt. The two men insist that their alliance remains close.
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