JERUSALEM (AP) – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has spent much of his long career turning Israel’s Arab minority into a potential fifth column led by terrorist sympathizers, is openly judging his support as he seeks to be re-elected in the country’s fourth vote in less than two years.
Few Arabs are likely to heed his call, underscoring the desperation of Netanyahu’s political downfall. But the relative absence of incitement against the community in this campaign and the potential disintegration of an Arab party alliance could diminish the presence – to Netanyahu’s advantage. He might even get enough votes to make a close choice.
In any case, Netanyahu’s openings shook the Arab community. The joint list, an alliance of Arab parties that won a record 15 seats in the 120-member Knesset last March, is being debated over a dispute over whether to work with Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud in -a moment when the center-left parties are less criticizable. I’m in a mess.
His death would leave the community with even less representation, as he faces a terrifying wave of crime, coronavirus-fueled unemployment and persistent inequalities. But given the complexity of the Israeli coalition system, an Arab separatist party could gain undue influence if it is willing to work with Netanyahu or other traditionally hostile leaders.
The fight came to light last week when Netanyahu traveled to Nazareth, Israel’s largest Arab-majority city, for his third visit to an Arab district in less than two weeks. Outside the venue, dozens of people, including a number of Arab members of parliament, protested his visit and quarreled with police, even though the city mayor greeted and praised him.
“Netanyahu came like a thief to try to gather votes on the Arab street together,” said Aida Touma-Suleiman, a prominent member of the Common List. “Your attempt to dismantle our inner community will not succeed.”
Arabs make up about 20% of Israel’s population. They have full citizenship, including the right to vote, and a large and growing presence in universities, the health sector and other professions. But they face widespread discrimination and blame relaxed Israeli law enforcement for a growing wave of violent crime in their communities.
They have close family ties with the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza and largely identify with their cause. This led many Jews to view them as sympathetic to Israel’s enemies, a sentiment espoused by Netanyahu and other right-wing politicians.
On the eve of the 2015 elections, Netanyahu warned his supporters that Arabs were voting in the “crowd.” During the 2019 back-to-back elections, his campaign sent poll observers to Arab districts and lobbied for chambers in polling stations, in what critics said was a ploy. to intimidate Arab voters and support false accusations of electoral fraud.
These movements started spectacularly.
The joint list, a difficult alliance of Islamists, communists and other leftists, increased turnout and emerged as one of the largest blocs in parliament. At times, it seemed that it could help to deny Netanyahu a majority coalition or even to emerge as an official opposition..
In May, however, after three elections stalled in less than a year, Netanyahu formed a coalition with his main rival and the Common List was left in the cold. In the upcoming elections, polls show that a coalition of right-wing parties and centrists committed to ending Netanyahu’s nearly 12-year rule could oust him without the Arab bloc.
No Arab party has ever asked for or been invited to join a ruling coalition.
In Nazareth, Netanyahu claimed that his 2015 remarks had been misinterpreted – that he had only warned Arab voters not to support the Common List.
“All citizens of Israel, both Jews and Arabs, must vote,” he said. In other Arab cities, he visited coronavirus vaccination centers, boasting of his success in delivering millions of doses. and encouraging residents to be inoculated.
Netanyahu’s Arab action seems to have given the green light to centrist and left-wing politicians to do the same, with less concern that their right-wing rivals will use it against them. Opposition leader Yair Lapid, Netanyahu’s main center-left opponent, said over the weekend that he was open to forming a government with external support from the Common List.
Meanwhile, the Joint List shows signs of disintegration. Mansour Abbas, the head of an Islamist party, has expressed his openness in recent months to working with Netanyahu to address issues such as housing and law enforcement. An assistant to Abbas rejected requests for an interview.
A widespread disintegration of the Common List could further reduce its presence and leave one or more of its four parties with too little support to cross the electoral threshold.
Thabet Abu Rass, co-director of the Abraham Initiatives, which works to promote equality between Jews and Arabs, says Netanyahu could attract a small number of Arab voters, but that many more would boycott the election.
“He’s waiting to see if there will be a common list or not, and if you ask me, it won’t happen,” he said. “This time there are a lot of profound differences.”
A survey conducted in December forecast of the Arab presence at about 55%, much lower than 65% in March last year.
Although historically Arab parties have behaved worse on their own, some believe that parties could be more effective individually. In Israel’s political system – which requires potential prime ministers to form majority coalitions – small parties often exert excessive influence.
“When we talk about the Palestinian community in Israel, we are not talking about a bloc, we have different ideologies,” said Nijmeh Ali, a policy analyst at Al-Shabaka, a Palestinian international think tank. “Sometimes you have to break up to gain strength.”
Netanyahu appears to be focusing on margins ahead of a tight race that could determine not only whether he remains in office, but whether he will pursue immunity from prosecution for multiple corruption charges. With just a few seats, a pragmatic politician like Abbas could determine Netanyahu’s fate.
“This is the new thing in Arab politics,” said Arik Rudnitzky, a researcher at the Institute for Democracy in Israel. “I am ready to enter into direct negotiations with Likud.”
He said it did not mean they would be part of a governing coalition, but could provide external support to benefit the Arab public. “It could be a win-win situation,” he said.
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Associated Press reporters Areej Hazboun of Jerusalem and Ami Bentov of Nazareth, Israel, contributed to the report.