New research methods using satellite data could detect volcanic eruptions years in advance.
In a recent study published in the journal Nature Geoscience, researchers at Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the University of Alaska, NASA, Fairbanks said that large-scale thermal disturbances measured using statistical analysis of infrared data with a length of Long-wave satellites have revealed that the last magmatic and steam eruptions of five different volcanoes have been preceded by years of rising, albeit subtle, large-scale increases in their “radiant heat flux.”
“IMEN” EXPLOSION ROCKS ST. VINCENT AS VOLCANO SLOWLY BEING
Although there are already recognized signals that a volcano is likely to erupt, including seismic activity, changes in emissions and sudden deformation of the soil, accurate predictions are difficult.
In addition, no two volcanoes are exactly alike, and few of the world’s active volcanoes have adequate monitoring capacity.
“Volcanoes are like a box of chocolates: they may look similar, but inside there is a lot of variety between them and sometimes even inside the same,” Paul Lundgren, co-author of the study, said in a Tuesday release. from the space agency. “In addition, only a few volcanoes are well monitored, and some of the most potentially dangerous are the least eruptive, which means you can’t rely strictly on historical records.”
Seismologists have managed to instruct residents of St. Vincent to evacuate the “red zone” around the island’s La Soufriere volcano due to increased seismic activity just hours before its eruption on Friday.
The ash rises in the air as La Soufriere volcano erupts on the island of St. Vincent of the Eastern Caribbean, Tuesday, April 13, 2021. (Photo AP / Orvil Samuel)
The director of the University of the West Indies Seismic Research Center (UWI), Erouscilla Joseph, told Fox News that the team began to see the first seismic quake in the area early Thursday morning.
NASA explained that the team of scientists analyzed more than 16 years of radiant heat data from the Modrorate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites.
The communiqué also noted that, despite the differences between the types of volcanic eruptions under control, the researchers’ findings were uniform.
“In the years before an eruption, the temperature of the radiant surface on much of the volcano rose by about 1 degree Celsius from its normal state. It dropped after each eruption,” the agency wrote, later adding that scientists theorize the increase in heat can result from the interaction between magma tanks and hydrothermal systems.
“We attribute widespread thermal disturbances to the improvement of underground hydrothermal activity and suggest that such an analysis of infrared satellite observations can improve constraints on the thermal budget of volcanoes, early detection of pre-eruptive conditions and assessment of volcanic alert levels,” the summary concluded. of the work.
Now, scientists will test their method on several volcanoes.
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Fine-tuning the method and using what they have learned to complement existing tools could save lives.
“One of the goals is to one day have a tool that can be used in near real time to check for volcanic activity in volcanic areas,” lead author Társilo Girona told NASA. “Even for small eruptions, there is evidence of thermal disturbances before the eruption event begins, so the new method helps us get a little closer to this goal.”